Dollar or euro: which currency is better for Ukrainians to hold their savings in 2025?

The National Bank of Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund predict further devaluation of the hryvnia throughout 2025. As a result, many Ukrainians are considering purchasing foreign currency to preserve their savings.

To find out which currency is better to hold funds in during the current year, read the overview by journalist RBK-Ukraine Alik Sakhno.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia again yesterday, January 9. The dollar has hit a new historical high for the fifth consecutive time – at 42.28 hryvnias/dollar.

The European currency is still far from the peak levels it reached last autumn – 43.55 hrynias/euro. However, this may change soon.

Advantages of Investing in the US Dollar

Financial analyst Andrei Shevchishin recommends investing in the US dollar in the short term, followed by the euro. In his opinion, the dollar will be more attractive in the first half of the year, while the euro may become more interesting in the second half, depending on the situation in the country.

"For the first half of the year and the coming months, I would recommend investing in the dollar. It appears more attractive than the euro, as the euro is currently under pressure. I believe the active phase of the war in Ukraine will conclude in the first half of this year. Therefore, based on this scenario, it can be said that the euro will be under pressure for most of the semester. Once it becomes clear that we are moving towards negotiations, a freeze of the conflict, or achieving peace agreements, the euro will begin to recover against the dollar," – asserts the expert.

Shevchishin adds that the hryvnia will be weak in the first half of the year, but stabilization is possible in the second half, provided there is a good harvest and activity in the agricultural sector. However, a weakening of the hryvnia may begin again in the autumn, although it will not be as pronounced as in the first half of the year.

"Regarding investments: in the first three months of 2025, it will be the dollar. Afterwards, as Ukraine moves to negotiations, Europe will experience economic recovery. This will support the euro in the second half of the year, making it potentially more attractive than the dollar. However, the hryvnia will weaken in all scenarios. But we will need to monitor the situation," says the financial analyst.

He clarifies that if the war continues into 2026, it will impact the euro, which will remain under pressure, and the dollar will outperform the euro throughout the year.

"The forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar suggests it may reach 43-44 hryvnias per dollar and stabilize at around 45 by summer. By the end of the year, the rate could rise to 47 hryvnias per dollar. Regarding the euro, it is expected that the exchange rate will fluctuate around 45 hryvnias, but with potential adjustments to 1.05 or even 1.01 per dollar," – predicts Andrei Shevchishin.

Financial analyst from the ICU group, Mikhail Demkiv, in a comment to RBK-Ukraine, suggests that the dollar will strengthen against most currencies worldwide, including the euro, in 2025. According to him, we may even see parity between these two most popular currencies in the world during the year.

"In 2025, the US Federal Reserve will be cautious in lowering rates. At the same time, the new US President Donald Trump will pursue policies that could lead to somewhat higher inflation and relatively high rates in the economy. The latter attract investors, resulting in the dollar's exchange rate increasing. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is consistently lowering rates, causing the euro to weaken against the dollar," – notes the expert.

He states that due to this situation, which will last for some time, investing in the dollar in 2025 appears more attractive than in the euro.

Why You Should Invest in the Euro

At the same time, the investment director of Capital Times, Artem Shcherbina, has a different opinion. In a comment to RBK-Ukraine, Shcherbina anticipates a repetition of the policies of the 47th US President Donald Trump regarding the dollar, which he implemented during his first term eight years ago.

"Right now, it seems to me that a situation similar to that before Trump's inauguration in his first term in 2017 is forming. Back then, everyone was talking about the weakness of the euro and how Trump would come in and make the dollar super strong. But it turned out that in the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump immediately stated that he was against a strong dollar. As a result, the dollar showed the worst performance in the first year of his presidency in the last 20 years. That is, all currencies grew except for the dollar," – notes Artem Shcherbina.

He adds that Trump seems dissatisfied with the high interest rate in the US relative to the EU. Therefore, according to Shcherbina, if the US Federal Reserve decides to lower it, this will lead to a decline in the yields of dollar-denominated assets, which will directly affect the strength of the dollar.

The expert predicts that this year the euro could exceed the psychological mark of 50 hryvnias. Regarding the dollar, Shcherbina believes that its average exchange rate throughout 2025 will not exceed 44 hryvnias. However, by the end of the year, he expects further weakening of the hryvnia to a level of 46 per US dollar. This forecast is based on the assumption that the war may continue throughout the year.

"Of course, there is a possibility of ending the war this year, and much depends on the policies of our international partners. Therefore, economic trends in 2025 will likely resemble those we observed in 2024. However, the economy will no longer grow at a rate of 4-5%, as it did at the beginning of last year," – emphasizes the investment director of Capital Times.

He also adds that the 2025 financial year will be relatively stable and predictable. However, in Shcherbina's opinion, in 2026, financial aid to Ukraine will likely decrease significantly, leading to greater fluctuations in the national currency's exchange rate.

According to the published IMF forecast, the average annual exchange rate in 2025 will be 45 hryvnias/dollar. The head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andrei Pyshny, noted that the dollar exchange rate in 2025 "will not skyrocket". According to him, an important factor for the stability of the Ukrainian currency will be the gold and foreign exchange reserves, which should amount to about 41 billion dollars by the end of 2025.

We also remind you about investments in military bonds. How to buy OVGZ and how much you can earn from it, read in our article via the link.

In preparing the material, comments were used for RBK-Ukraine from financial analysts Andrei Shevchishin and ICU group Mikhail Demkiv, investment director of Capital Times Artem Shcherbina, as well as data from the National Bank.