Eight-hour blackouts: What to expect from power outages in Ukraine this December and the reasons behind them.

In Ukraine, electricity outage schedules are currently in effect. According to "Ukrenergo," due to adverse weather conditions, 325 settlements in nine regions have lost power, and on November 22, from 6 AM to 10 PM, hourly outage schedules were implemented across all regions. "The reason for the temporary restrictions is the damage to energy facilities during the massive missile and drone attack on November 17. Energy workers are working to eliminate the consequences to restore the damaged equipment as quickly as possible," — states the message from "Ukrenergo."

Attacks are to blame. Why Ukrainians have returned to electricity outage schedules

Experts cite the main reason for the current power outages as a deficit in the energy system, linked to the aftermath of the destruction caused by attacks on power plants earlier this spring. While much has been restored and repaired, the enemy struck energy facilities again on November 17, particularly targeting the Kremenchuk Hydroelectric Power Station. Meanwhile, temperatures have sharply decreased, leading to increased electricity consumption. Together, both factors have impacted the volume of the deficit in the system, prompting the operator to introduce outage schedules for all consumer categories. Experts also mention issues in the transmission system, which has sustained damage (due to both attacks and bad weather).

There are bottlenecks in the electricity transmission system, and experts say there are issues with electricity transmission to the left bank.

The fragile situation in the energy sector is related to the level of damage to power plants, which, although partially repaired by the start of the heating season, often can no longer perform their full maneuvering function — that is, handle the entire load volume, experts say. "Thermal power plants are operating at their limits, and often blocks are shut down during overloads, meaning they can no longer fully serve their role as maneuvering capacities. This leads to a deficit — as even the maintenance of just one block of a thermal power plant under current conditions and winter temperatures exacerbates the deficit, thus increasing the need for outages," explained Yuriy Korolchuk, an expert from the Institute for Energy Strategies.

A long winter without power. Will imports help and what will the schedules look like in winter?

Due to the deficit, Ukraine is actively utilizing electricity imports from neighboring countries. As reported by Ukrenergo, on November 22, imports will occur throughout the day from Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Moldova. The total volume is 7,408 MWh, with a maximum capacity during certain hours reaching up to 817 MW.

The only and main factor that will influence the duration of outages is military-related.

However, experts say that, unfortunately, imports cannot cover the entire deficit in the energy system. There are several reasons for this, one of which is the extremely high cost of electricity in EU countries. "Businesses are purchasing very little imported electricity because it is expensive; if you look at Poland, Romania, Hungary, there are very high prices," says Andrian Prokip. He adds — as a result of shelling, networks were damaged, meaning the transmission system is unable to cope with the loads, and thus even a theoretical increase in import volumes would not alleviate the deficit.

Moreover, specialists note the issue of "price caps" — maximum prices for electricity that businesses can pay. Thus, if the price in Europe exceeds the price cap, a company cannot purchase the required volume of electricity and cannot import. Although some experts point out: a state trader can handle this, so the price cap issue theoretically should not affect the import volumes of electricity from the EU. However, everything comes at a cost, and it is not insignificant.

There are currently not many forecasts for winter. Experts note: the only and main factor that will affect the duration of outages is military-related. If power plants are reliably protected by air defense systems, it may be possible to get through the cold season with planned outage schedules of 3-4 hours a day for each group of consumers. But new destructions will lead to deeper deficits, meaning there are risks of longer outages — 6-8 hours a day or more. In fact, for example, this is how the outages are currently in Kyiv and the region.

Experts hope that without new damages, Ukrenergo will be able to establish stable planned outage schedules, allowing Ukrainians to somewhat endure the winter. However, a scenario without any outages is likely impossible to foresee. "Even without Russian Armed Forces strikes on energy infrastructure, given such cold winter weather and the condition of power plants, which could go into maintenance at any moment, outages will occur in winter. They may just be relatively short, up to 4 hours a day. But this is only if there are no new hits on the energy sector," — summarized Yuriy Korolchuk.