Thursday07 November 2024
gipoteza.net

Is the front in Donbas collapsing? Russia has seized 8 settlements in just three days. Is there still time to correct the mistakes?

Western experts are sounding the alarm: the pace of the offensive could enable Russian forces to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region within six months. In contrast, the Ukrainian government maintains a more optimistic view of the situation, noting that while Russia is making progress, it is not as rapid as it was in 2022. Focus has learned how urgently issues must be addressed to prevent further advances by the occupiers.
Фронт в Донбассе "рушится"? РФ захватила 8 населенных пунктов всего за три дня. Есть ли шанс исправить допущенные ошибки?

The advance of Russian troops in Donbas continues. On October 29, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the capture of Selidovo, Horyanyk, Yekaterynivka, and Bohoyavlenka in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian command does not confirm this information, but some military personnel openly speak of a significant breakthrough by the Russians.

According to Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro Marchenko, "the front in Donbas has collapsed" and this is not a military secret. This has partly occurred due to a lack of ammunition, weapons, and personnel. Those involved in the fighting are very fatigued and simply unable to hold the fronts. Military failures have also resulted from imbalanced management.

"Unfortunately, they have already entered Selidovo, and they are establishing themselves there. I believe that soon they will encircle it and capture it entirely, which will give them a tactical advantage towards Pokrovsk. This is very bad for us," the military official stated.

The Russian army quickly occupied Horyanyk and the village of Tsukurino. Capturing Selidovo will enable a wide front advance towards the west of the Kurakhiv Reservoir. Near Kurakhovo, there is an important transport junction leading to the Zaporizhzhia region.

"What is happening now, I would say, should not be the case," Marchenko added.

Similar assessments have been voiced by German military observers. Analyst Julian Repke from the German tabloid Bild notes that "the front is collapsing" in the southern Donetsk region. Over the last three days, the Russian army has captured eight settlements: Bohoyavlenka, Yekaterynivka, Izmailivka, Aleksandropol, Horyanyk, Selidovo, Shakhtarske, and Vishneve. On a regional scale, this amounts to a loss of between 2 to 5 kilometers per day. At this pace, Russia would need six months to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region, he points out.

In the current situation, he blames Western allies: such a weak level of support leads to "Ukraine losing the war before our eyes." Kyiv cannot find the means and methods to stop Russia's advance.

"We need to immediately increase the amount of new weapons and ammunition, without any restrictions. Secondly, NATO needs to protect Ukrainian skies and implement real sanctions against Russia and its allies. Since we (almost the entire EU) and the USA are not ready to do any of this, we can only watch the catastrophe unfold," the journalist lists the necessary solutions.

Journalist Christoph Wanner from the German publication WELT calculated that in October, the Russian Armed Forces captured more Ukrainian territory than in September and August 2024. There has been the highest level of territorial losses since March 2022, when the invaders advanced towards Kyiv. Throughout 2023, they occupied 584 square meters of Ukrainian territory, and since January 1, 2024, the area of occupied regions has increased to 2,660 square kilometers.

At the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters on October 25, it was stated that there is a very difficult situation in Donbas, but Ukrainian defenders continue to hold their positions and do everything to destroy the enemy.

"The front will collapse if the Russian Armed Forces approach Dnipro or Kharkiv"

At the same time, he denies the phrasing "the front has collapsed." It is difficult to maintain the frontline, as its stabilization will require additional reserves. The loss of territory clearly does not indicate a victory for Ukraine, he explained.

"Collapse is probably more of a strategic definition. There would be a collapse if the Russian Armed Forces found themselves near Dnipro or Kharkiv. Russia is advancing, but not as rapidly as it did in 2022. What measures should be taken? Introduce fresh and well-trained reserves, build fortifications, and ask the West for more weapons," the politician provided recommendations.

The constructed defensive structures do not always meet the current needs of the war, but they are still being built, the MP is convinced.

It should be emphasized that the issues of insufficient military assistance and fortification construction have not arisen today. How quickly the situation can be changed at this time should be asked of the military-political leadership of Ukraine, Kostyenko advises.

Donbas needs hypertrophied defense

Russian occupiers are advancing rapidly in areas of the front where they should not be. Military analyst Alexander Kovalenko explains this with two points: either not all means of destruction are being used, or fortification obstacles are not prepared. For example, he cites the advancement of the Russian grouping towards the village of Shakhtarske from Zolota Nyva in the Donetsk region.

Protecting the remaining territories of Donbas will require the implementation of the principle of hypertrophied defense. "Dragon's teeth" should be placed on the roads every 500 meters; this defensive tactic has long been employed by the Russian army.

"Every 500-600 meters, the Russian column should have to stop and become a target for our drones and artillery. Another question: how many TМ-62 anti-tank mines have been placed? Every 250 meters, 'shashki' should be placed with 14 or 21 mines each. This will amount to 20 locations in the case of the route to Shakhtarske," he added.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine encountered the hypertrophied defense of the Russians during the counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region in 2023. The supply line was nearly impossible to break through, and there were areas where five mines lay on every square meter. Additionally, the enemy dug so many trenches and firing positions that it was impossible to pass unnoticed, Kovalenko states.

"Of course, we cannot say that we should take example from the occupiers. But the Zaporizhzhia region is still under their control. Why are we not using this when the Russians have a numerical advantage and in technology? Soon we will face another problem — the elections in the USA. For two months, we will be in a state of hibernation, as we were during the battles in Congress," warns the analyst.

Kovalenko also questions Marchenko's statements about the "collapse of the front" in Donbas. The term is relevant if the enemy has broken through defenses over a front section longer than 20 kilometers and deeper than 30 kilometers, and has also reached operational space.

"This is a quick and irreversible breakthrough by the enemy of the first (supply line) and second lines of defense, with a direct exit and operation in the zone of the third line of defense (rear supply zone)," the expert concluded.

Recall that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gaining advantageous firing positions by utilizing Soviet agricultural planning in the steppes of Donbas. Natural defenses allow them to hide from enemy reconnaissance drones.