China and the USA won't manage it alone: which global players might still exert pressure on Putin in 2025?

During a recent online interaction with readers of the French publication Le Parisien, President Vladimir Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine determines its own future and that no other nation or political leader has the right to dictate terms.

"I firmly insist that no leader in the world has the right to negotiate with Putin without Ukraine. We have never delegated this mandate to anyone. We are the victims, and it would be unfair if others began to dictate how our country should live. The French in France, the Italians in Italy, or the Americans in the USA know what they want for themselves. The same goes for Ukrainians," the head of state noted. He also outlined the importance of creating a peace plan that can ensure fair conditions "for any dialogue with the Russian side."

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At the same time, a political scientist did not rule out that at some point in the negotiations, China might openly or discreetly join the talks, summarizing: "The question remains when, how, and in what format this might happen with China, as right now China has taken a wait-and-see position."

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Pointing out that only Trump could create conditions for genuine interest in participating in the peace process for another "significant player" like China, the expert added: "After the inauguration on January 20, 2025, Trump will either intimidate Beijing or, using a carrot approach, create what we might call an interesting proposal for China that would be hard to refuse. For now, China is quietly sitting back and watching what happens after the inauguration of the old-new U.S. president. Of course, Xi Jinping will not attend the inauguration, despite Trump inviting him, breaking protocol. However, this is a very interesting move (inviting a leader from another country to the ceremony is rare), something that hasn't happened in a hundred years if I'm not mistaken. In short, there are quite interesting geopolitical games already underway, which will certainly continue into 2025."

Oleg Lesnoy refers to the near future as a zone of turbulence spreading across the globe. "It's hard to say how and where it will strike as a result. Who, for instance, could have predicted the events that occurred in Syria just 10-11 days prior? I spoke to colleagues who specialize in Syrian issues, and they just shyly lowered their eyes... So, who knows, perhaps something similar will happen with Russia. While everyone is watching Putin's "Nutcracker", his vertical may collapse in an instant. By the way, the phenomenon of dictatorial regimes is that they appear to be the most solid structures just a day before their demise," concludes Oleg Lesnoy.

Which countries, besides the USA and China, could influence the further course of the war

Forecasting an increased role for Japan in 2025, the expert noted: "For Japan — one of the largest economies in the world — Russia's defeat in the war against Ukraine means the return of its territories, so Tokyo has a direct and immediate interest in Moscow's failure. Unfortunately, South Korea, which could also play an important role, has taken a back seat. However, if there is political stabilization in 2025 and North Korea continues to pose a threat to Seoul, South Korea may still have a significant say in the Russian-Ukrainian war. I believe the countries of the Persian Gulf will play an important role: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates. The change of Assad's regime at the end of 2024 opens the possibility for Qatar to build a gas pipeline from itself to the EU through Turkey and Syria. This will seriously complicate relations between Russia and the Gulf countries, which will have positive implications for us."

In response to the question of whether China would change its currently passive position to a more decisive one in 2025, Ivan Us stated: "For China, Russia is primarily needed as a irritant for the USA, so I don't think China will change its position too much."

However, the expert is convinced that the tone of Trump's administration's conversations with Russia will play an extremely important role. If China senses that Trump wants to trade Ukraine for an anti-China line from Russia, Ivan Us emphasizes, then Beijing's reaction will be instantaneous, as China will not allow this under any circumstances.