Heating season is starting: what risks are involved and will heating be turned off?

Need for Gas: Will Ukraine Have Enough Fuel for Winter?

According to Alexey Chernyshov, despite all the attacks on gas extraction facilities and heavy shelling of underground gas storage facilities from April to August 2024, the Naftogaz Group has accumulated enough gas to sustain the autumn-winter period.

"Since the beginning of the year, the companies of the Group — Ukrgazvydobuvannia and Ukrnafta — have extracted over 7% more gas than in the same period last year. Additionally, gas production has been restored by Ukrneftebureniye at the Sakhalin field," Chernyshov noted.

The "Naftogaz Trading" company has signed contracts for gas supply with all heating and utility companies that submitted the relevant requests.

Moreover, he stated that the company continues to purchase gas on the domestic market through the Ukrainian Energy Exchange.

"During the heating season of 2023/2024, Ukraine used 6.7 billion cubic meters of gas from Ukrtransgaz's underground storage. This year, the Naftogaz Group expects similar figures," said the chairman of the board of NJSC "Naftogaz of Ukraine."

It is known that "Naftogaz Trading" has signed contracts for gas supply with all heating and utility enterprises that submitted appropriate applications.

Chernyshov also emphasized that gas is currently supplied under special obligations (PSO) for the needs of the population, so the prices for heating and utility enterprises, electricity producers, and the population will remain unchanged until the end of April 2025.

"Gas Networks specialists ensure the distribution of gas and conduct technical maintenance of networks in apartment buildings to ensure safe and uninterrupted gas supply," he added.

Gas has been injected into Ukraine's storage facilities since April 2024.

"Both Naftogaz and other companies are injecting gas into storage. It is clear that this year's reserve will be formed considering the tasks set by the government regarding gas accumulation volumes. The company also declares that it continues to buy gas from private companies and is increasing production," the specialist noted.

According to publicly available information published by European platforms, by autumn 2024, more than 10 billion cubic meters of gas have been accumulated in underground storage facilities. The government's target is approximately 13 billion. This includes the total volume of gas stored by other companies besides "Naftogaz," as well as foreign traders. According to Nitsovich, this will generally allow exiting winter and the gas extraction season with minimal volumes.

"For example, in spring 2024, we exited winter with a volume of 8 billion cubic meters; if we do not increase injection, next spring we will have fewer reserves in storage at the end of the heating season... The issue is in volumes and working capital. It seems to me that in the current situation, more attention will be paid to the domestic resources — gas from state and private companies," he added.

It is worth noting that Ukraine survived the previous winter without imported fuel. However, imports occurred in the first quarter of last year. Now, the resumption of imports for the formation of a fuel safety reserve is possible.

"Naftogaz has gained access to credit resources from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and will begin purchasing imported gas specifically to create a safety cushion. Because the Russians attempted to knock out our extraction assets, particularly in the Kharkiv region, and may continue to do so. Therefore, it is wise to have a reserve. The only question is why this wasn't done earlier, for instance, during the summer months when gas prices were more attractive than they are now. By the way, this will technically not be considered an import because customs duties will not be paid. The gas will be cleared when it is moved from the customs warehouse to be used in the domestic market," Nitsovich said.

Life at -10°C: Expert Provides Scenarios for the Heating Season

Meanwhile, housing and communal services expert Oleg Popenko notes that Ukraine will only have enough gas to get through the heating season if the winter is mild.

"Our foreign partners have practically not stored gas in our gas storage facilities. We have also partially lost our gas fields. Gas production in 2024 has dropped significantly. Therefore, we have little gas. Thus, everything will depend on weather conditions. The success of navigating the heating season will depend on winter weather. If the air temperature stays around zero without sharp drops to below freezing, it can be considered a more or less normal heating season. However, we also need to consider the shelling," Popenko noted.

The success of navigating the heating season will depend on winter weather

Another problem with getting through the heating season this winter is that many apartment buildings are not prepared for it at all. Oleg Popenko pointed out that due to a lack of capital repairs in high-rise buildings, up to 40-50% of heat loss occurs at the start of the season.

"If the air temperature drops to -10°C and lasts for three to five days, it will be a serious challenge for many cities in Ukraine to get through the heating season," Popenko stated.

In the worst-case scenario, this would mean a decrease in temperatures in homes to critical levels.

"To save gas, heating and utility companies will reduce the temperature of heat carriers and supply to apartment buildings, resulting in indoor temperatures of 14-16°C.

It is clear that all universities and schools will be sent on long breaks. The supply of electricity will also be under huge question. After all, besides nuclear power plants, our electricity needs can only be met through gas and a bit from hydroelectric power stations. Wind or solar energy is unlikely to provide the necessary volume in case of low temperatures. This means that gas will be directed towards electricity supply. Therefore, in a pessimistic scenario, we will be left without heating and electricity. This primarily concerns frontline and border regions," explained Oleg Popenko.

Is There a Chance to Prepare for Winter Independently?

As the previous experience of the 2023-2024 winter showed, preparation for possible power outages and heating disruptions is critically important. The key factor is the willingness of residents to unite. While not everyone can equip their homes with the necessary equipment for blackouts or lack of centralized heating, it is possible to engage homeowners' associations or utility services for inspections and repairs of networks.

When preparing for winter, it is essential to inspect the networks — electrical panels, hot and cold water systems, sewage, and to carry out at least current repairs on the building's infrastructure to prevent failures during frosty weather.

"First and foremost, it is necessary to inspect the networks — electrical panels, hot and cold water systems, sewage, and to carry out at least current repairs on the building's infrastructure to prevent failures during frosty weather. Additionally, in buildings above nine stories, it is crucial to ensure the availability of backup power sources. In case of outages or regional blackouts, there should be a capability to power the pumping group that supplies water and heat to upper floors, as well as elevators. This is what needs to be done right now. However, it is indeed quite challenging," said housing and communal services expert Oleg Popenko.

Among other preparations for the cold, the usual purchases for Ukrainians include thermoses, gas camping stoves, warm blankets, and even sleeping bags. Many city residents already have certain supplies of necessary materials, as winter is expected to be neither easy nor comfortable.