Tuesday05 November 2024
gipoteza.net

The Seventh Coming: Will Lukashenko continue to lead Belarus until 2030?

The presidential elections in Belarus have been scheduled for January 26, 2025. This decision was made recently during a meeting of the House of Representatives of Belarus. Focus examined the likelihood of Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, being replaced by another candidate.
Седьмое пришествие: останется ли Лукашенко у власти в Беларуси до 2030 года?

The decision of the House of Representatives of Belarus to hold voting for the presidential elections on January 26, 2025, was reported by the state news agency BELTA. The head of the Central Election Commission of Belarus, Igor Karpenko, stated during this meeting that the commission is fully prepared to organize the voting within the specified timeframe.

Why Ukraine and the world do not recognize Lukashenko's legitimacy

Currently, only the long-standing leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has announced his intention to run in the 2025 presidential elections. He stated this during an interview with Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva at the BRICS summit. She directly asked him whether he plans to participate in the elections since the date has already been announced. In response, Lukashenko succinctly noted that "the date is good," but Skabeeva insisted on a clear confirmation. To this, he replied, "Yes, Olya, I will run for president."

It should be noted that Lukashenko has been leading Belarus since July 1994. As the BBC ironically points out, in his lifetime, Lukashenko has held only two leadership positions: director of a state farm and president of Belarus.

On July 20, 1994, Alexander Lukashenko took his first oath. In 1996, at his initiative, a referendum was held to expand presidential powers, limit the parliament's authority, and add several years to the legitimate term of the head of state. Currently, the presidential term in Belarus is 5 years.

Выборы в Беларуси всегда сопровождались протестами оппозиции9

In 2004, at the initiative of the same Lukashenko, another referendum was held, which resulted in the abolition of legislative restrictions on the presidency being limited to two terms. Thus, Lukashenko paved the way for unlimited candidacy for the presidency. He has run for office six times — in 1994, 2001, 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2020 — and almost every time, according to the CEC, he received over 80% of the votes.

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Meanwhile, the August 2020 presidential elections in Belarus led to mass protests following the announcement of the results. According to official data, Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory again by a large margin. However, the opposition and a significant portion of the population did not recognize these results, demanding acknowledgment of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya as the legitimate winner.

On September 23, 2020, Alexander Lukashenko held his inauguration despite the protests. Belarusian security forces then dispersed demonstrations and detained many participants. Several countries, including Ukraine, as well as EU member states, the USA, the UK, and Canada, did not recognize the legitimacy of the elections and imposed sanctions against the Belarusian authorities, demanding new elections.

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How "Kolia" Lukashenko is waiting for his political time

It should be noted that sanctions are imposed not only on Lukashenko himself. For example, on August 9, exactly on the 4th anniversary of the "falsified presidential elections in Belarus," Canada imposed a new sanctions package, which included Lukashenko's younger son — 20-year-old Nikolai, better known to the public as "Kolia Lukashenko." The media has long referred to "the first son of Belarus" as the heir and successor to Alexander Lukashenko, despite the latter repeatedly stating that he does not intend to pass power in the country to his children. However, Nikolai himself has admitted that he indeed sees his future in high politics.

Following Lukashenko's announcement of his intention to run in the 2025 elections, it is evident that the issue of succession is currently losing its relevance. Meanwhile, the figure of "Kolia," who is currently studying at a Chinese university as part of an exchange program, continues to attract attention, including from global media. Interestingly, in June 2022, at his own graduation, Nikolai Lukashenko and his companion appeared dressed in the colors of the Ukrainian flag.

Why the upcoming elections will be the calmest for Lukashenko

выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко14 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко15 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко16 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко17 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко18 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко19 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко20 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко21 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко22 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко23 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко24 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко25 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко26 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко27 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко28 выборы президента беларуси, выборы лукашенко, лукашенко 7 срок, биография лукашенко, кто конкурент лукашенко, кто преемник лукашенко29

"From the standpoint of real support, he (Lukashenko — ed.) will garner a certain portion of votes. Moreover, this will be more than 50%, as, unfortunately, he has indeed succeeded in promoting the idea that thanks to him, Belarus has not plunged deeper into the Russian-Ukrainian war. Lukashenko has 35% support from the so-called group of Soviet Belarusians. As for other groups, one of them consists of people who do not see Lukashenko as an adequate president for the future, yet at present, they view him as the least of evils. Essentially, it is through these groups that Lukashenko may "get by," but I note, not because he is overly loved, but because, firstly, the thesis that he protects Belarus from being dragged into the war works, and secondly, there is still no clear answer to the question of who could emerge as a strong competitor in the elections," emphasizes Igar Tyshkevich.

Meanwhile, in his opinion, "to create an illusion of democracy," several individuals will compete against Lukashenko in the presidential elections, including those "who were previously considered democrats."

"In any case, the upcoming elections will likely be the calmest for Lukashenko because the level of repression is quite high, and those who could hypothetically become organizers of any activity outside the state's control are, so to speak, preemptively detained. Such measures regularly occur in Belarus before presidential elections, and this year they are happening on a larger scale," notes the analyst.

Lukashenko is trying to mitigate the Russian factor, and Tikhanovskaya is no competitor

In the context of the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, Igar Tyshkevich notes that the Russian Federation factor should not be overlooked, and this is, in his opinion, one of the key reasons why Lukashenko is in such a hurry: "In Belarus, there is a layer of pro-Russian citizens (around 7%) who see no value in the existence of the Belarusian state and want to join "Greater Russia." This group reacts to what the Russian, rather than the Belarusian, propaganda says. In other words, as long as Russian propaganda "sings" that Lukashenko is good, they support him, and when he becomes bad, his support in this segment will instantly plummet. This was perfectly illustrated in 2020. I remind you that the elections took place on August 20, and Russian propaganda stopped attacking Lukashenko on the 19th, after his meeting with Putin. Prior to that, the same Solovyov and others were not just disparaging Lukashenko — they were using much more unpleasant substances."

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Thus, Igar Tyshkevich emphasizes, the fueling of protest sentiments during the previous presidential elections in Belarus in 2020 was a direct achievement of Moscow and Kremlin propaganda. "Then, Russia was working to destabilize the situation, but currently, it is not. This is precisely why Lukashenko is rushing with the elections, so that the RF does not have time to respond similarly, as for Russia, it is indifferent who will be in power; what matters is that, regardless of the name, the position of the Belarusian president is weak. Therefore, Lukashenko's logic is straightforward: less time before the elections means less time for a reaction from the Kremlin," explains Igar Tyshkevich.

The Russian factor, the analyst emphasizes, is extremely significant for Lukashenko, as Belarus is currently undergoing a transformation of the power system "toward something resembling the Iranian model," and in this sense, a rapid electoral process is also an attempt to prevent potential competitors from forming and implementing their activities.

It is noteworthy that, according to Igar Tyshkevich, in the 2025 presidential