Storm Shadow, ATACMS, and "Oreshnik" are entering the fray: has the war in Ukraine reached a critical phase?

Western officials have recently been increasingly vocal about the critical phase of the war in Ukraine. This perspective is held by UK Defense Minister John Healey, who advises Europe to invest more in ensuring its own security.

He emphasizes that particular attention should be paid to strengthening eastern borders, collaborating on the development of air defense systems and long-range missiles, as well as intensifying joint industrial programs in the defense sector.

Military officials, soldiers, and analysts, in discussions with Financial Times (FT) journalists, view the coming months as a crucial stage in the confrontation. Ukraine aims to stabilize its defense and strengthen its positions in case the new U.S. President Donald Trump forces it to negotiate with Moscow.

Kiev anticipates that Russia's offensive will escalate. According to a Ukrainian military official, more medical personnel are being sent to the southern and eastern fronts in preparation for intense battles in the coming weeks. Russia is preparing forces numbering up to 50,000 soldiers, including those from North Korea, to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) back from the Kursk region.

If Ukraine can halt Russia's advance and seize the initiative by the time Trump takes office, it will demonstrate its capability to fight and win. This would help persuade the U.S. President to continue support, say senior Ukrainian officials to FT.

Ukraine's Ambassador to Brazil, Andrey Melnyk, expressed a similar assessment of military trends: the next eight weeks leading up to Trump's inauguration will be the most challenging in Ukraine's history since 1991. Kiev may be forced into "some decisions," so it is crucial to actively engage with the future president and his team while they are developing their approach to Ukraine.

Missile Escalation: Do Storm Shadow, ATACMS, and the Russian "Oreshnik" Affect the Critical Phase of War?

The UK recently decided to secretly supply Ukraine with several dozen Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Deliveries occurred a few weeks ago due to Ukraine running out of long-range missiles, sources informed Bloomberg.

British authorities have not officially confirmed the missile supplies. The Kremlin has repeatedly referred to strikes with long-range missiles on Russian territory as a "new escalation" and an approach towards NATO's direct involvement in the war.

At the same time, the use of Western missiles against targets in Russia and the demonstration of the latest "Oreshnik" in Dnipro will not significantly impact the course of the war, believes Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

He stated that claims about critical phases have been made at various points during the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the most acute phase was undoubtedly at the beginning of the Russian invasion — in February-March 2022.

The objective concept of criticality lies in the collapse of the front, when the Russian Armed Forces occupy Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, advancing closer to Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia. The exchange of missile strikes does not have a strong influence on the war's course. The testing of the Russian "Oreshnik" in Dnipro serves as a signal to the West but is not an attempt to gain an advantage on the front line.

The Russian Armed Forces are taking advantage of the window of opportunity before Trump's inauguration, as evidenced by the events in eastern Ukraine. Moscow seeks to secure a strong position ahead of future negotiations, believes Mikhail Samus, Deputy Director of the Center for Army Research, Conversion, and Disarmament.

Russia aims to portray current events as a critical phase of the confrontation while simultaneously threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Preparations for communications between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump are ongoing, notes Samus.

According to the expert, one should not fully trust negative military forecasts. Since April 2024, Western journalists have reported on the fall of Pokrovsk, and a month and a half ago, there were claims that "the front has collapsed."

"But the breakthrough does not appear to be as it is now on the Donbas. Russia's achievements seem more akin to the suffering and destruction of Russian soldiers," he concluded.

It is worth noting that on November 25, social media reported about an alleged offensive by the occupiers near the village of Kazachya Lopany near Kharkov. The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation denied this information: the situation is fully under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

The DeepState project previously reported on the advancement of the Russian army near eight populated areas in the Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vremievka directions. Heavy fighting is ongoing in the vicinity of Kurakhove.