Tuesday05 November 2024
gipoteza.net

Entry Ticket: Why Ermak discussed peace talks as Russia retreated to its positions from February 24.

The head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, states that Ukraine is now prepared to engage in negotiations with Russia not only after its troops withdraw to the borders of 1991, as previously outlined in the "Zelensky formula," but rather if they retreat to the positions held as of 2022—before the full-scale invasion. Focus investigated what this signal from Kyiv might indicate.
Входной билет: почему Ермак затронул тему мирных переговоров, когда Россия вернулась к позициям 24 февраля?

Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak stated in an interview with the Italian Corriere Della Sera that for negotiations with the Russian Federation to commence, Russian troops must withdraw to positions as they were before February 24, 2022. "We are against freezing the war; we want it to end. We are reassured by the fact that countries of the Global South also condemn the Russian invasion and the forceful seizure of territories. However, to start negotiations, we must return to the situation that existed before the first shot from a Russian cannon at four in the morning two years ago. Only then will we discuss how to restore our sovereignty to the borders of 1991," the head of the OP noted.

He emphasized that he is indifferent to what Putin says about the need to consider "realities on the ground": "I don’t care what this aggressor says! We cannot construct a peace proposal under the influence of those who wanted this war. We will be ready to hold an international conference (Peace Summit. — Ed.), when we feel strong and have the support of the Global South for negotiations with Russia." When asked whether this means that the Peace Summit is postponed to next year, the head of the OP noted: "We don’t know; we will do this when the appropriate conditions arise, hopefully as soon as possible."

Андрей Ермак, Заявление Ермака, Андрей Ермак о переговорах с Россией, Ермак об окончании войны, Ермак границы до 24 февраля 2022 года

As is known, earlier President Zelensky, along with Yermak himself, had considered negotiations with Moscow within the framework of the second Peace Summit, which was planned for November.

Why Yermak's statements deserve special attention

Moving along the lines of caution in case Trump returns to the White House, the expert suggests that Ukraine "most likely wants to clearly demonstrate its capability and readiness for peaceful negotiations and its inclination for dialogue with the Russian Federation."

Regarding Yermak's recent statements about the "Peace Summit," the political scientist noted: "It is clear that Ukraine wants to secure greater support from the Global South, without which holding the second summit would not be correct or logical in terms of our interests overall and the desire of the authorities to make this event successful, in particular. This is a very important track, as statements have repeatedly been made from Bankova that the war must be concluded precisely at the second Peace Summit."

In a certain sense, Oleg Posternak considers the points raised by the head of the OP regarding the return to negotiations if Russian troops withdraw to positions as of February 24, 2022, to be significant. "I would like to emphasize that such a statement has been made for the first time by Ukrainian officials. Therefore, considering that Yermak is essentially the main coordinator of the foreign policy line, I would pay special attention to this statement, as it is not made casually," concluded the expert.

How Bankova is advancing in a favorable paradigm for the West

At the same time, the expert suggests that statements similar in content to those made by Yermak are important for our partners: "I do not rule out that this is a certain element of bringing unofficial conversations into the public domain, which are taking place, for example, around further support for Ukraine from Western partners. They (the partners. — Ed.) might be saying: 'Well, alright, if we are to support you comprehensively until you reclaim, say, both Crimea and Donetsk, let’s talk about some more realistic negotiating positions.' Ukraine responds: 'Okay, let’s talk about the line that existed before February 24, 2022.' Perhaps in the West, this is being perceived more calmly now, and they may provide weapons, missiles, etc., under this premise."

The political scientist believes that the head of the Presidential Office, speaking about the initial negotiating positions, is conducting dialogue "in a key favorable to Western partners at this stage."

"The fact is that Western politicians are very concerned about Ukraine not forcing them to support it until it regains all its territories. That is why we hear, so to speak, tactical conversations that are conditioned by the sentiments of our partners who are perpetually tired of the war. This is a kind of vitamin for the West. And if we speak seriously, some allies mistakenly believe that if Ukraine makes at least some territorial concessions, peace, friendship, chewing gum, pipelines, and everything will be super wonderful will come almost instantly," summarizes Petro Oleschuk.

Is Putin really unwilling to go beyond his ultimatums?

Calling this position of the Kremlin a fiction, the expert noted that Russia is thus demonstrating its unwillingness to move beyond its "ultimatum positioning."

Путин

Reminding of President Zelensky's recent statements that if Russia stops attacking energy facilities, peace negotiations can begin, Ihor Chalenko stated: "Thus, we are currently seeing a strengthening of Ukraine's position in terms of the entry ticket for negotiations. But this is all constructed solely due to Russia's unwillingness to take steps towards the negotiation process. That is, if the international community were to encourage Russia towards real negotiations with adequate starting positions, I believe Ukraine would be more flexible. In the current situation, we are showing in every way that the key to further negotiations lies in Putin's pocket, and the ball is in his court."

Despite active efforts to stimulate negotiations from the likes of India, Turkey, and many other countries, the expert notes, "the Russian aggressor ignores all of this and manipulatively spreads the false thesis that Ukraine is merely using the negotiation umbrella while actually not striving for peace."

Overall, in the expert's opinion, the key issue is not about territories but about "Putin's cognitive rejection of Ukraine as an independent state." The Kremlin, Ihor Chalenko asserts, is not planning to retreat from achieving its "cherished desire," which is to erase Ukraine from the map of the world.