Blackouts are making a comeback. What's causing the electricity shortage, and who will be the first to experience the outages?
In Ukraine, there are predictions of power outages due to a significant drop in temperature, a shift in peak electricity consumption, and consequently, the need for emergency assistance from neighboring countries' operators. This was stated by Vladimir Velichko, a member of the supervisory board of "Centrenergo." Therefore, what to expect in November, will there be power outages, and at what temperature.
Situation with Power Outages
Velichko reported that after the cold snap in October, the energy system is already experiencing a noticeable increase in consumption. Additionally, the peak has shifted from 20:00 to 19:10 hours.
At the same time, due to the drop in temperature, consumption will also increase in Europe. Electricity prices are expected to rise, particularly due to the reduced share of renewable energy sources. All of this will affect the possibilities of commercial imports to Ukraine, as price caps have been set on the spot market. The National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Public Utilities (NERC) has initiated a review of the price caps to increase them, while some are advocating for their complete removal.
The drop in air temperature will lead to an increase in energy consumption levels
Meanwhile, NEC "Ukrenergo" has denied information regarding the possible implementation of hourly outage schedules in Ukraine as early as next week. This was stated against the backdrop of such announcements from "Centrenergo."
"As of today, there are no grounds for introducing consumption restriction schedules for the population," said "Ukrenergo."
Weather and Outage Schedules: What to Prepare For
As noted by energy sector analyst and director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, Vladimir Omelchenko, the drop in air temperature from November 3-4 is indeed being recorded, which will lead to an increase in energy consumption levels. However, whether outages will be necessary (particularly for residential consumers) can only be predicted by NEC "Ukrenergo," which has not yet provided forecasts regarding the implementation of restriction measures.
"Ukrenergo," in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy, regional military administrations, and energy companies, is doing everything possible to prevent the implementation of consumption restrictions
"If this information were open and transparent, we could clearly see both the consumption volume and the operational blocks. I am more inclined to trust "Ukrenergo," which has complete information about the state of the energy system and how well the demand is being met through both domestic production and the recently expanded import capabilities, as well as emergency assistance from neighboring energy system operators," said Nitsovich.
"Ukrenergo," for its part, stated that together with the Ministry of Energy, regional military administrations, and energy companies, it is doing everything possible to prevent the implementation of consumption restrictions.
"We urge citizens to trust only official sources of information, and experts and officials of energy companies to refrain from comments beyond their competence," they added.
0 At What Temperature and Conditions Will Ukrainians Be Without Power
According to acting head of NEC "Ukrenergo," Alexey Brekht, whether there will be blackouts in Ukraine depends on the air temperature outside. Initially, the most challenging period is expected to be from December to February.
He stated that the country could go through the winter period without outages or with minimal electricity restrictions during peak consumption hours if the temperature stays at 0 degrees or higher. Minor schedules may be introduced if the air temperature remains between -10 and -15 degrees Celsius for three consecutive days.
The occurrence of blackouts in Ukraine depends on the air temperature outside. Initially, the most challenging period will be from December to February
Such restrictions, the representative of "Ukrenergo" continues, will correspond to one queue of outage schedules. The company's forecast indicates that the most challenging situation, with minimal power outages, is expected over three months — from December to February. The colder it gets, the higher the likelihood and duration of outages.
Roman Nitsovich adds that such a situation may occur in the absence of attacks from the Russian Federation.
"And if we talk about duration. In the worst-case scenario, which includes the continuation of massive attacks but allows for electricity imports, this would mean two queues of outages — on the coldest days with existing damage," said the expert.
It is worth noting that a queue refers to a group of consumers that consumes a specific amount of electricity. There are a total of six queues. As the electricity deficit in the system increases, so does the queue of consumers who experience simultaneous power outages during stabilization measures.
1 Outage Queues: How Long Will There Be No Power
How is the queue related to the duration of electricity restrictions? The company "Yasno" explained that if only the 1st queue of outages is limited, it means that consumers may be without power for up to 4 hours a day.
- Limiting the 2nd queue of outages means no power for 8 hours a day.
- 3rd queue of outages — 12 hours a day.
- 4th queue of outages — more than 12 hours, as well as outages in light gray zones of the schedules.
If 5th or 6th queues are limited simultaneously, it indicates that emergency power outages have begun and the schedules are no longer effective.
The determination of how many queues will have electricity restrictions is made by "Ukrenergo." Each distribution system operator in the regional energy companies then separately determines which outage schedule to apply in the regions and which specific queues to disconnect.
2 However, in the second decade of October 2024, imports began to increase significantly again and took on a regular nature.
Therefore, Ukraine is preparing for a winter that may be more challenging than the previous one, as in 2024, the focus of enemy attacks on energy transmission facilities shifted to the destruction of electricity generation capacities.
Earlier, we wrote about what electricity outages will be like in winter in Ukraine. According to experts, during winter, Ukrainians can expect power outages lasting from 4 to 18 hours a day.