The dollar is rising: what to expect in early December.
In the first week of December, the situation in the currency market is expected to remain quite predictable and very favorable for exchange rate indicators. A gradual increase in the dollar's value is anticipated.
This was stated by Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, in a comment to RBK-Ukraine.
The banker noted that, within the framework of a managed flexibility regime, global fluctuations in exchange rate pressure are nearly excluded.
According to him, both the interbank and cash markets will continue to experience a balance between supply and demand. While this balance on the interbank market will be achieved through currency interventions, on the cash market, the holiday factor (next week is St. Nicholas Day) may prompt some citizens with foreign currency savings to sell their currency for purchasing gifts and preparing for Christmas and New Year.
"Moreover, the overall economic situation, bolstered by substantial new tranches of international financial aid, provides reason to believe that the market is not at risk of excessive demand. I reiterate, we should expect an equilibrium between supply and demand to be established," Lesovoy added.
Exchange Rate Forecast
The banker predicts that the main characteristics of the currency market for the next week (December 2-8) will be as follows:
- The corridors of permissible currency fluctuations will be 41.4-41.8 UAH/USD and 43.5-45 UAH/EUR (in the interbank market) and 41.5-42 UAH/USD and 45-47.5 UAH/EUR (in the cash market).
- Depending on the currency, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.3-0.5 UAH.
- Average weekly deviations will be within 1-1.5% from the starting rate of the week.
"So, at the beginning of December, there will be no threats of destabilization in the currency market. Exchange rate indicators will change with minor amplitude, making them barely noticeable on a weekly basis. The tendency for upward movements is still present, however, any upward trends will be sluggish and hardly perceptible," Lesovoy stated.