Friday06 December 2024
gipoteza.net

A memorable photo: why Macron sought Lavrov at the G-20 summit, while Biden went "missing" in the Amazon.

In the final declaration of the G20 summit, held on November 18-19 in Rio de Janeiro, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war was mentioned, among other topics. So, what agreements were reached by the leaders of the "Big Twenty," and what implications do they have for Ukraine? Focus sought to find out.
Запечатлённые моменты: почему Макрон искал Лаврова на саммите G-20, а Байден "пропал" в Амазонии.

The two-day G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro effectively marks the conclusion of the G20's activities during the Biden administration in Washington, which has become a farewell to geopolitics. During his last trip to the G20 summit, even before arriving in Rio de Janeiro, Joe Biden became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the world's largest tropical rainforest region, the Amazon. Specifically, the 81-year-old Biden made a stop in Manaus, Brazil's seventh-largest city and the capital of the state of Amazonas, where the Rio Negro river flows into the Amazon. There, the American leader met with provincial leaders, representatives of the indigenous local population, and civil society representatives who are advocating for the implementation of a green agenda. "This is one of the pivotal moments of President Biden's administration. His historic trip to the Amazon demonstrates his personal commitment and America's long-standing dedication to combating climate change both at home and abroad," commented White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Biden's mission.

It is worth noting that the tropical forests of the Amazon basin, located within nine Latin American countries, continue to be destroyed uncontrollably. Over the past 40 years, they have lost an area equivalent to the size of France and Germany combined. In this context, the host of the G20 summit, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, raised the issue of rainforest conservation. Meanwhile, the practical implementation of this case is becoming increasingly problematic with the impending arrival of Donald Trump as the 47th U.S. president in January 2025. The elected leader of the United States intends to withdraw from further participation in the global fight against climate change, believing that the climate agenda hinders U.S. industrial development and the realization of his campaign slogan, "Make America Great Again."

On the eve of the G20 summit, The New York Times reported that Trump's team, which is still being formed, has already prepared a series of climate-related decrees, including a re-exit of the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Recall that the first exit occurred in 2020 at the end of Trump's first presidential term. However, in 2021, under President Biden, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Protocol.

How Putin Worried About the "Ukrainization" of the G20

Russia was represented at the current G20 summit by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. As stated by Russian media, the ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry for special assignments and sherpa at the G20, Marat Berdyev, the work on the G20 final declaration was complicated by constant attempts to "ukrainize" the document. Nevertheless, the final declaration ended up being completely "toothless." In particular, the leaders of the "Group of Twenty" acknowledged their approval of "any relevant and constructive initiatives related to resolving the conflict in Ukraine": "We welcome all relevant and constructive initiatives aimed at supporting a comprehensive, just, and sustainable peace in accordance with all the goals and principles of the UN Charter to promote peaceful, friendly, and good-neighborly relations among nations."

Additionally, the heads of state noted the "human suffering" amid the Russia-Ukraine war and expressed support for establishing a world free of nuclear weapons.

In turn, UN Secretary-General António Guterres's representative, Stéphane Dujarric, stated that "regardless of the course of battles in Ukraine," the warring parties must ensure the safety of civilians. He specifically commented on the report about Western permission for Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range missiles.

Did Putin Really Fear Arrest at the G20 Summit?

According to experts, Donald Trump will attempt to significantly alter the processes of globalization, particularly concerning the role and weight of the U.S. in international institutions. "There is currently an effort to convey to the U.S. the necessity of preserving globalization. How successful this will be is a question, as the fog around Trump's position has not yet completely cleared. I believe this fog will dissipate at the next G20 summit in Davos in January 2025."

An interesting nuance of the summit, Ivan Us considers, is Putin's absence, despite receiving guarantees from Brazilian authorities against arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC): "This indicates that Putin is very apprehensive about leaving Russia for countries that do not share a border with the RF and where there is a risk of a plane not making it, as in the case with Prigozhin. I think the Prigozhin incident lingers in Putin's mind, and he understands there are enough people (possibly including those around him) who would like to change the trajectory of global politics in such a manner. As a result, Lavrov attended the summit, which also indicates that the current world order, to put it mildly, does not align with reality. Why? Because a country that cynically undermines the world order simultaneously participates in many international summits."

In summary, the expert concluded that the world order can and should be changed, but not in the way Putin desires, "who systematically plays this record, wearing it out to the core."

Why G20 Decisions on the Russia-Ukraine War Are Hollow and Vague

Calls and appeals from the G20 for various peace plans are deemed by experts as mere tokenism, as there is no consensus on this issue among the "Group of Twenty" countries. Noting that Kyiv should approach such "faceless" statements with understanding, the political analyst emphasized that much more important for Ukraine is cooperation with individual states within the G20 to strengthen alliances.

Сергей Лавров, Эмманюэль Макрон

Incidentally, speaking of allies, it should be noted that at the current G20 summit, the President of France shook hands with the head of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Moreover, as reported by Bloomberg, Emmanuel Macron specifically "sought out" Lavrov to greet him. It is also worth mentioning that in the joint photo from the G20 leaders' meeting, U.S. President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni were absent. The White House explained Biden's absence due to logistical issues. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, commenting on the situation, noted that Western politicians have previously "orchestrated a circus with photography," for example, attempting to do so at night to avoid being photographed with Lavrov.