Can NATO launch a preemptive strike on Russia, and under what circumstances? Insights from an expert.
Statements from top NATO commanders regarding the potential for preemptive strikes against the Russian Federation indicate a possible shift in defense strategy. It's likely that under certain conditions, the alliance may take such action.
This was discussed in an interview with YouTube channel RBC-Ukraine by the head of the Public League Ukraine-NATO, Sergey Dzherdzh.
It should be noted that earlier, NATO's Military Committee Chairman, Admiral Rob Bauer, suggested strikes on Russian territory in the event of an imminent attack.
According to Dzherdzh, these remarks are a response to changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine, particularly the claim that Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries if they employ conventional weapons from NATO nations (which have nuclear capabilities).
"It seems to me that Bauer is indicating that they have their own response. If Russia plans attacks, which can be anticipated through satellite intelligence and other means, NATO may act preemptively," he noted.
The expert believes this marks an evolution in NATO's deterrence strategy. Initially, the tactic was to avoid provoking Moscow and to refrain from strengthening its eastern flank. In such a scenario, if attacked, Russia would likely seize the Baltic states and half of Poland, while NATO forces would gather closer to the West and only, with U.S. support, would push back the enemy.
After the invasion of Ukraine, the strategy changed, particularly due to pressure from the Baltic states, who are unwilling to live under occupation for even a day. Consequently, the Alliance is now bolstering its presence on the eastern flank to signal to the Russians not to even attempt crossing the border.
"What Bauer said represents a new NATO concept. It states that if Russia is preparing to attack, building up troops and deploying missiles, and NATO is convinced that the day of war is approaching, it will preemptively destroy enemy targets. I don't believe his statement was made lightly. His remarks are official. A quiet, modest, yet serious signal to Russia," the expert added.
He also emphasized that NATO leaders typically make political statements in public, but the alliance possesses a very powerful military tool. The command's task is to prepare for various challenges and "have 200 options" for every scenario.
"On one hand, there is a call in the U.S. to deploy intermediate-range ballistic missiles in response to threats from Russia. On the other, there are other forces and means that NATO can have ready and, if necessary, apply force against Russia," Dzherdzh said.
What NATO's top general Rob Bauer said
During a discussion at the European Policy Centre, he stated that NATO countries need to invest more in air defense and long-range capabilities in light of threats from Russia.
"What I mean is that previously the idea was that we are a defensive alliance, so we will sit and wait until we are attacked. And then, when we are attacked, we can intercept the 'arrows' (referring to missiles - ed.) that come our way. But it is wiser not only to do that but also to strike the 'shooter' located in Russia if Russia attacks us," Bauer explained.
Recall that earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the countries of the alliance must change the trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine.
The initial steps towards this should involve critically important air defense assets and fulfilling all commitments to Ukraine made at the recent summit in Washington. This includes training military personnel, financial and military aid amounting to 40 billion euros, and measures to further integrate the country with NATO.