The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its forecast for Ukraine's international reserves in 2024 to $43.6 billion, up from the previously expected $41.2 billion in July.
This information was reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing the updated forecast from the NBU for October.
According to the revised forecast, reserves are projected to be $41.0 billion in 2025, an increase from the earlier estimate of $37.3 billion. By 2026, reserves are expected to decrease to $34.7 billion, compared to the previous prediction of $32.0 billion.
"The NBU will be able to maintain an adequate level of international reserves to ensure the stability of the currency market," said NBU head Andriy Pyshny at a briefing on October 31.
International reserves peaked at $43.8 billion in March 2024 following unprecedented EU assistance. After that, reserves declined, falling to $38.9 billion by the end of September.
It is anticipated that reserves will also decrease in October, as NBU interventions in the interbank market of $3.4 billion exceeded the assistance of $1.4 billion.
Pyshny indicated that more than $15 billion is expected to come in by the end of the year, including $4.8 billion from the SPUR program with the World Bank, supported by U.S. financing.
As noted by Pyshny, international partners are significantly closer to providing Ukraine with a non-repayable loan secured by revenues from immobilized Russian assets, amounting to up to $50 billion under the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans program. The NBU expects these funds to be available to the budget in 2025 and 2026.
The NBU has improved its forecast for the volume of international aid to Ukraine to $41.5 billion in 2024 and $38.4 billion in the following year.