Russia is preparing for a large-scale missile attack: when to expect it and how many rockets the enemy has stockpiled.

On the night of November 7 to 8, the Russian Armed Forces attacked peaceful cities in Ukraine. According to the Air Force, the enemy utilized a "Iskander-M" type ballistic missile, four guided aviation missiles of the X-59/69 type, 92 strike drones of the "Shahed" type, and unmanned aerial vehicles of unspecified types for the strikes. Additionally, Russian tactical aviation launched guided bombs at the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

In the regions of Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukrainian air defense successfully destroyed:

• four X-59/69 missiles;
• 62 drones.

Another 26 drones were locally lost in various regions.

It is worth noting that Russia has not used X-101 cruise missiles against Ukraine for over two months. During this time, strategic bombers Tu-95MS have conducted hundreds of training flights. However, the increase in drone attacks and the use of guided aviation missiles could signal the beginning of large-scale missile strikes and possibly the return of cruise missiles in the near future.

Russia is stockpiling cruise missiles: when could mass shelling occur?

According to military expert and reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hetman, the Russian Armed Forces are preparing for a massive attack when the weather cools down slightly, which is why they are not currently using cruise missiles during attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities.

He emphasized that the enemy is openly planning to destroy energy infrastructure so that Ukrainians will have no means of heating during the winter.

"We cannot say exactly when they plan to strike, but we will see, because any such mass raids require preparation, and this takes at least a week. It is impossible to prepare a massive attack today for tomorrow," noted the major.

Military analyst Pavel Narozhny mentioned that currently, Russia is attacking Ukraine with a large number of "Shaheds," while they continue to produce cruise missiles.

The analyst also believes that the enemy is stockpiling missiles for the winter period, during peak electricity consumption, intending to launch large-scale shelling then. Russia may carry out combined strikes using "Shaheds," cruise, and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the current objective of the Russian army is to deplete the Ukrainian Air Force.

Has Russia's mass shelling tactics changed?

Hetman explained that previously the Russian Armed Forces would launch mass attacks across all of Ukraine—typically using ten missiles per ten targets. However, in his opinion, now the Russians will select two or three targets and deploy 30-50 missiles on each. Hetman noted that the enemy is convinced this is a more efficient approach, as they understand that some missiles will be destroyed while others will break through.

He stated that Russia is not changing its shelling tactics, as these strategies have been established for a long time.

"They simply choose one option or another. It is not that they are inventing something new that did not exist before. All these plans for air attacks and their variations have been laid out long ago. Nothing new is being created," he explained.

Narozhny pointed out that the Russians cannot devise a new shelling tactic. Instead, we should expect several waves of strikes from different directions.

Is the Ukrainian air defense ready for mass Russian attacks?

Pavel Narozhny stated that no country in the world can produce air defense missiles quickly enough to keep pace with the production of Russian cruise missiles. These aerial systems can be intercepted, particularly using aviation, air defense systems, and MANPADS, but this is insufficient. He believes that the Russian Armed Forces will conduct mass bombardments one after another, trying to penetrate the Ukrainian air defense system.

According to Oleksiy Hetman, the Ukrainian air defense is preparing for enemy mass attacks. Kyiv is also seeking to negotiate with partners for more missiles and air defense systems. He noted that it is easier to counter cruise missiles than ballistic ones. However, this does not mean that all aerial systems can be destroyed; some will inevitably get through. Moreover, the enemy is improving their missiles.

In the opinion of the major, over these months, the enemy could have stockpiled around 300 different types of missiles—X-101s, "Kalibrs," "Dagger" missiles, "Iskanders," and similar. Narozhny added that Russia produces about two cruise missiles per day and around ten ballistic missiles per month.

Recall that on October 29, the acting head of "Ukrenergo," Oleksiy Brekht, reported on preparations for several possible scenarios for the winter. According to him, this winter could be one of the most challenging in the last three years.

On November 7, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalенко, reported that Russia is selectively targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure with "Shaheds" to conserve missiles. He noted that this is a more cost-effective method of warfare.