Is Russia advancing in Kurakhovo? What’s happening at this front line, and what are the enemy's intentions?

Analysts from DeepState reported that the Russian Armed Forces are storming the eastern part of Kurakhove through Maksymilyanivka, advancing into the eastern outskirts of the city. At the same time, attempts to break through in the Ostrovskyi area continue.

Military expert and reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksii Hetman, noted that the N-15 highway from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk is the main logistical route supplying everything necessary to the Defense Forces located in and around Kurakhove.

"If the enemy cuts it off, we will have to deliver everything needed through alternative routes, for example, off-road, through fields. This will significantly complicate logistics," said Hetman.

Challenging Situation in the Kurakhove Area

According to DeepState co-founder Roman Pohorelyi, the Russians are attempting to advance towards the settlements of Ilyinka and Berestki, partially disrupting logistics and gaining control over the northern part of the area.

The occupiers are consistently active in the areas of Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, and Novoselidivka, attempting to break through with equipment and infantry while establishing positions in the thickets.

He stated that if Ukrainian fighters can still move along the Zaporizhzhia — Donetsk route, it will be like a lottery, as "anything could happen" at any moment.

"This is dangerous; it complicates movement and the situation. Both entering with supplies and exiting the city under worsening conditions will be extremely difficult and, of course, will lead to losses if it reaches that level," the analyst reported.

Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi pointed out that Kurakhove is part of the enemy's offensive towards Pokrovsk. Specifically, it is one section of the Pokrovsk — Kurakhove — Selydove front.

According to him, this situation primarily arose due to a lack of personnel and ammunition at the front, the enemy's air superiority, and the use of KABs.

The expert noted that the hottest direction at the front right now is Pokrovsk, where around 60% of all combat clashes occur, while the Lyman direction comes in second with up to 60 clashes per day. Meanwhile, the situation is calmer in other areas of the front.

He remarked that in the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy has concentrated all its combat-ready units, while in other areas, there is a shortage of personnel.

According to a Ukrainian soldier from the 25th Airborne Brigade with the call sign "Muchny," significant enemy activity is focused on the flank from Kurakhove.

As a result, the northern flank will be under fire pressure from the enemy. Staying in the city will be very dangerous due to heavy artillery fire. Additionally, the enemy is conducting attacks on the settlement of Dalnie, located north of Kurakhove. According to the soldier, the Russians aim to cut the communication route between Uspenivka and Kurakhove and flank the area, thus delivering strikes from both the south and the north.

"The city will be shelled from both sides while our forces hold out, but a retreat will inevitably be necessary," he noted.

Can Russia Encircle Kurakhove?

"There is the Sukhyi Yal River, which creates quite good defensive opportunities if the Russians advance from south to north. In the north, they may indeed take control of the reservoir near Berestki and Staryi Tern, where the Volchya River is located. But that does not mean Kurakhove will fall immediately. The enemy will still have to deal with water barriers, which is usually not very simple," said Samus.

He stated that for the encirclement of the settlement, the Russian Armed Forces would need to conduct "a sufficiently powerful operation." Specifically, the enemy is advancing from Yasna Polyana towards Konstantynivka and Andriivka. They aim to bypass the Sukhyi Yary River; however, whether they can do this depends solely on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Possible Enemy Plans if Kurakhove is Captured

If Kurakhove is captured, it is likely the enemy will advance towards Pokrovsk, and there may also be pressure on Myrnohrad. According to Roman Pohorelyi, the enemy could go further and enter the rear of Velyka Novosilka. As a result, the southern part of Donbas, where the line of combat contact is currently located, may fall into enemy hands, allowing them to push further.

However, according to "Muchny," if the city is captured, the Russian Armed Forces will not advance on Pokrovsk. For this enemy grouping, such a task is not a priority, as the Russians aim to reach the borders of Donetsk Oblast. Other groups are responsible for advancing towards Pokrovsk. Those pushing from Vysneve west of Selydove may target Pokrovsk, as well as those who cannot break through the Ukrainian defenses held by the 25th Airborne Brigade, located west of Novohrodivka and Lisovka.

How to Improve the Situation Near Kurakhove

Roman Pohorelyi is convinced that the situation in the Kurakhove area can be improved if the Defense Forces hold back the enemy. The analyst clarified that "the lies will ruin everyone." Specifically, if the actual situation on the ground does not correspond to what is reported and the command does not understand the real resources of the units being sent to reinforce and hold positions at a time when personnel are lacking, then the situation will definitely not improve. He noted that this is not the main problem but is part of a broader set of issues with consequences.

Mykhailo Samus believes that to improve the situation in the Kurakhove area, the Ukrainian army needs long-range capabilities for F-16 aircraft to shoot down Russian Su-34s. Meanwhile, mobilizing a million people, in his opinion, will not yield any effect, as what is needed are resources and combat capabilities that will enable the halt of the Russian Armed Forces' advance across the front.

Pavlo Narozhnyi highlighted that the mass use of KABs by the enemy is eroding the Ukrainian defense, thus there is an urgent need for means to shoot down their carriers. The situation could also improve by increasing the number of mobilized personnel and enhancing their training in military centers.

Moreover, it is essential not to forget about the enemy's artillery capabilities — the Russians maintain a high tempo in the number of shots fired and advance because they destroy everything within reach — all houses and fortifications.

The expert believes that Ukrainians need to respond to such actions by the Russians, which requires a large number of shells and artillery systems. However, allies are not supplying this weaponry very quickly. Meanwhile, infantry cannot stop artillery.

"The situation is tough right now, but there is no collapse of the front, no uncontrolled retreat, and so on. Yes, we are losing territory, but this is happening in a controlled manner, so to speak," Narozhnyi summarized.

On the other hand, "Muchny" believes that improving the situation in the Kurakhove area will not be possible, as the front is collapsing here.

"With each passing day, the enemy intensifies attacks and tries to advance 1-2 kilometers forward, especially in the south," he said.

We remind you that on November 6, the head of the communications department of the 46th separate airborne brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Neizvestnyi, reported that in the area of responsibility of the 46th Airborne Brigade on the Kurakhove front, the enemy has not yet managed to capture new positions, but continuous attempts to seize more are ongoing.

On the same day, DeepState analysts reported that the Russians are advancing further west from Kurakhove. In this direction, the enemy has made progress near two villages located west of Vuhledar.