North Korean special forces and Seoul's scouts: the two Koreas may clash on the battlefield in Ukraine. What consequences will this bring?

The intention of soldiers from the regular army of North Korea to participate in the Russian-Ukrainian war is no longer a secret to anyone. Last week, more evidence emerged regarding the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia. The South Korean intelligence service is tracking the movements of the North Korean contingent: up to 1,500 special forces soldiers have arrived at a training ground in Vladivostok, and Pyongyang plans to send up to 12,000 military personnel to support the Russian Armed Forces.

Videos of military exercises in the Far East have surfaced online. OSINT analysts geolocated the footage and concluded that it shows military unit No. 44980 of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division in Primorsky Krai, near the border with North Korea. The Ukrainian military command believes that North Korean troops may be used in combat operations in the Kursk region.

Representatives of North Korea responded for the first time to the information about troop movements on October 22, more than two weeks after reports of the beginning of deployments emerged. Pyongyang considers Seoul's allegations of sending regular troops to Ukraine to support Russian forces as baseless rumors.

"Regarding the so-called military cooperation with Russia, my delegation sees no need to comment on such unfounded stereotypical rumors aimed at tarnishing the image of North Korea and undermining the legitimate, friendly, and partnership relations between two sovereign states," said a North Korean representative at a meeting of the UN General Assembly's disarmament and international security committee.

According to open data, North Korea is currently moving infantry components without military equipment. It is still unknown whether North Korean troops will be supplied with their own equipment or will be required to use Russian military gear.

South Korea Will Acquire Ammunition and MLRS

South Korea promises a phased response to the deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Seoul may send intelligence officers and tactical experts on the North Korean army to Ukraine. South Korean personnel may interrogate or translate the speech of North Korean soldiers captured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and share data on North Korean military tactics and operations with Kyiv, writes the Yonhap agency.

South Korea is one of the world's largest arms suppliers, but it does not send weapons directly to Ukraine. Last year, the United States transferred 300,000 155mm South Korean shells from its own stockpiles to Ukraine.

Possible scenarios include sending defensive and offensive weapons to Ukraine. The South Korean army employs a range of defensive systems, including the KM-SAM medium-range surface-to-air missile system to enhance its air defense capabilities.

Among the offensive weapons are 155mm artillery shells, K9 self-propelled howitzers, K2 battle tanks, and Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems, reported a senior official from the South Korean presidential administration.

On October 17, North Korea recognized South Korea as a "hostile state," and in January 2024, Kim Jong-un excluded the provision for striving for peaceful reunification of the two countries.

"One Korean people, two different systems. The world is so globalized that military conflicts in one part reflect in another. Seoul understands that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict between democracy and autocracy. If Russia and North Korea win, South Korea will become the next target," he reflects.

North Korea has essentially long become a proxy for China, as Beijing controls over 90% of its economy. Military and nuclear technologies have been provided to North Korea by China, he added.

The level of cooperation between Russia and North Korea is high due to the similarity of their regimes. Western democracies engage in a series of negotiations with partners, between ruling elites and the opposition, while autocrats issue party orders and act instantly.

"Whether to strike Russia with missiles is a point of divergence among the West. France and the UK are in favor, while Germany and the USA are hesitating and weighing the risks. The military objectives of democratic regimes depend on electoral cycles: the goal of any politician and party is to win the next elections, while Putin or Kim Jong-un are unchanging leaders; they don't care," the expert explains.

Thus, Russia is signaling that in the event of NATO countries approving the "victory plan" of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and increasing military assistance, it will respond by involving another country's army in the war.

Moreover, Moscow is creating zones of tension in several parts of the world to divert U.S. attention from the war in Ukraine, believes the analyst.

Participation of North Korean Soldiers in Combat Operations

Russia may utilize the North Korean army corps to cover its borders in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions. The corps exceeds the number of troops in the "Bryansk" group, notes Alexander Kovalenko, a commentator for the "Information Resistance" group.

There is also a possibility of replacing Russian units in the rear of temporarily occupied territories in Ukraine. The Koreans will perform supervisory and repressive functions, while the Russian occupiers will be sent to strengthen offensive capabilities.

The third option involves the participation of North Koreans in assault operations: if 12,000 soldiers are deployed to a specific front, the offensive capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces will be significantly enhanced, Kovalenko assesses the situation.

The first transfer of soldiers from North Korea may not be the last; monthly shipments of personnel will create a high level of risk where they operate.

Dmitry Snegirev adds that the Russian army is replenished by 35,000 personnel each month, and the occupiers are capable of waging war without North Korea. The issue of the language barrier remains pertinent, making it difficult to utilize North Korean soldiers on the battlefield alongside other occupying contingents. Artificial intelligence and translators may not always be sufficient.

According to Snegirev, gaining combat experience in Ukraine is not a top priority for Pyongyang. The North Korean special forces are in constant combat; in the 1970s and 1980s, they unofficially participated in the civil war in Angola. At the very beginning of the Arab-Israeli conflict, North Korea supported the Arab side. During the IDF operation "Protective Edge" in Gaza in 2014, Pyongyang negotiated with Hamas terrorists regarding the supply of automatic weapons, grenade launchers, and anti-tank missile systems.

The Syrian opposition claimed in March 2016 that two battalions of the North Korean army participated in battles alongside dictator Bashar al-Assad. The North Korean battalions "Chalma 1" and "Chalma 7" were well-trained, each consisting of over 300 personnel.

"The war in Syria was characterized by the use of chemical weapons, new armaments, and drones. Engineers from North Korea constructed well-known tunnels for Hamas terrorists; they are constantly engaged in combat," concluded the military expert.

It is worth noting that Western experts are trying to unravel the secrets of North Korea's Special Operations Forces. In January 1968, 31 commandos attacked the residence of the President of South Korea, resulting in the deaths of six soldiers during a clash with the police.