Russia launched the "Rubezh" and created "Oreshnik." Will the world overlook Russia's first-ever ICBM strike?

During his address to the Russian people on November 21, President Vladimir Putin stated that the "Yuzhmash" plant in Dnipro was struck by the latest ballistic missile "Oreshnik" equipped with a non-nuclear hypersonic payload.

According to the Russian leader, Western air defense systems are powerless against the "Oreshnik," as these missiles target objectives at speeds of 10 Mach, approximately 2.5-3 kilometers per second. Before the next launch, Russia will alert civilians in Ukraine and citizens of friendly nations about the need to evacuate areas that could be affected.

It is noteworthy that there is a lack of publicly available information regarding the Russian missile "Oreshnik." The Pentagon stated that it was a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) developed from the RS-26 "Rubezh" missile. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh also mentioned that the U.S. had previously notified through nuclear risk reduction channels about the missile launch shortly before it occurred.

Western publications have also indicated that the strike on Dnipro was carried out using a medium-range missile, rather than an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The Financial Times reminded that under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-III), signed on April 8, 2010, in Prague, an ICBM is defined as a ground-based ballistic missile with a flight range exceeding 5,500 km.

The majority of ICBMs have a range of 8,000 to 15,000 km. The average range for ICBMs is considered to be between 1,000 and 5,500 km, while shorter-range missiles are categorized as having a range of 500 to 1,000 km. However, even medium-range capabilities enable Russia to launch a nuclear strike on any point within the European Union from its territory.

Where Did the Myth of "Oreshnik" Come From?

The designation "Oreshnik," as asserted by the Defence Express analysts, may have appeared in working documentation related to the development of the RS-26 "Rubezh" missile. Such "ambiguity" is common in the Russian defense industry. For example, the X-101 cruise missile is referred to as "product 504."

The Kremlin clearly aimed to exert psychological influence with the "Oreshnik" on Western countries and to create the impression that Russia has developed new missile capabilities. By the beginning of 2024, Russia had 521 ground-based and sea-based ICBMs, a stockpile accumulated over more than two decades.

Military analyst Alexander Kovalenko points out the lack of rationale for developing a new hypersonic nuclear missile when "Kinzhal" and "Tsirkon" missiles are already available. The characteristics of these missiles are similar, yet they have been intercepted multiple times by Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems. A large portion of Ukrainian territory is also within the reach of Russian Iskander tactical missile systems and conventional cruise missiles.

All the aforementioned types of weapons can be equipped with nuclear warheads. In November 2022, a cruise missile X-55 with a nuclear charge simulator was already launched at Ukraine, making the use of medium or intercontinental range missiles in a conflict with a neighboring state senseless.

According to Kovalenko, Russian media and military bloggers received directives to downplay the significance of the missile used in the Dnipro strike. Putin was compelled to mention some hypersonic, conventional "Oreshnik," fearing a response from the international community.

In the view of retired colonel and former spokesperson of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev, Russia struck Dnipro specifically with the RS-26 "Rubezh" missile. The treaty prohibiting the testing and deployment of medium and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty) was signed by the USSR and the USA on December 8, 1987.

Until 2019, the USA and Russia were participants in the INF Treaty. Moscow secretly continued to develop missiles in this category, prompting the U.S. to withdraw from the agreement.

In his video address, Putin stated that Russian missile operators named the missile launched at Dnipro "Oreshnik." However, military personnel never assign names to missiles — this is the prerogative of manufacturers, the expert notes.

Russia is demonstrating to the world its readiness to escalate tensions, while Ukraine has become a battleground between NATO and the aggressor. However, the Alliance has yet to appear on the battlefield, the analyst observes.

"The President of the Russian Federation is confident that he will not receive a serious response. To some extent, he is right: we do not see significant statements or emergency meetings of the Security Council. For the first time in human history, a strategic missile is being used in combat. International organizations have shown fear. This means that further attacks on Ukraine will involve "Topol," "Yars," and other types of ICBMs," Seleznev emphasizes.

How to Defend Against Russian ICBMs?

Intercepting an RS-26 "Rubezh" missile is nearly impossible with conventional air defense systems. The only defense option is to intercept it at high altitude, before the separation of the warheads. Theoretically, Patriot systems could intercept the broken fragments, but there have been no actual cases of successful missile interception.

Ukrainian military analysts note that expensive American THAAD systems are capable of intercepting intercontinental RS-26 "Rubezh" missiles. Ukraine does not have them in its arsenal, and the U.S. allies possess them in limited numbers.

In addition to THAAD, the U.S. has Aegis BMD systems for protection against medium and short-range ballistic missiles, equipped with Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors, but these are ineffective against maneuvering missiles.

Another American system, GMD, intercepts ICBMs in space, but its effectiveness depends on having precise trajectory data. Based on available information, intercepting the RS-26 "Rubezh" is possible with a combination of modern air defense systems, satellite surveillance, radar impact, and accurate intelligence data.