Harris or Trump? How will the results of the U.S. elections impact Ukraine?
The elections in the USA are set to take place tomorrow, November 5, 2024. The outcome will determine whether military support for Ukraine continues or if the main partner insists on negotiations with the Kremlin at the expense of Ukraine's interests.
For more details on what to expect from the potential presidencies of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, how US "Ukrainian policy" may change, and when this could happen, see the article from RBK-Ukraine.
The Position of Harris and What Her Victory Would Mean for Ukraine
Kamala Harris has promised decisive support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and has criticized Vladimir Putin. At the Munich Security Conference in February, she condemned the delay in military aid from Congress, stating that such a situation would be a gift to the aggressor.
"History shows that when we do not respond, when the aggressor invades its neighbor with impunity, it will continue to advance. In Putin's case, this means that all of Europe will be at risk," she noted.
At the first World Summit in Switzerland, Vice President Harris represented the United States. There, she emphasized the need to punish the aggressor. Otherwise, she argued, it would encourage other aggressors and lead to new wars.
During her meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in September, she highlighted that no questions regarding the war could be resolved without Ukraine's involvement. She also mentioned that some in the US are trying to persuade Ukraine to make territorial concessions, clearly referring to Donald Trump.
"These proposals sound similar to Putin's proposals. But these are not proposals for peace; they are proposals for capitulation. This is dangerous and unacceptable," Harris said, adding that Putin could quickly end the war by withdrawing his troops.
Photo: Kamala Harris shares President Zelensky's vision for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war (president.gov.ua)
Overall, she stated that she aligns with Zelensky's view on the end of the war, although she did not make specific claims about a Ukrainian victory plan. During a debate with Trump, she accused her opponent of flirting with a dictator, asserting that he would "surrender in 24 hours" instead of concluding the war. "You think you're friends with a dictator, but he would eat you for lunch," Harris emphasized, stating that "Putin would be in Kyiv" if Trump were president.
In general, she clearly articulated her desire to see Russia defeated and promised to continue Joe Biden's policy of providing aid to Ukraine.
These are rational expectations, as Harris is indeed part of the current administration, explains the head of the "Institute of American Studies," analyst Vladislav Faraonov from "Internews-Ukraine."
"But to assert this confidently, we need more specifics from her and from those who might hold key positions in her administration. Many in Washington are paying attention to this. It's one thing who becomes president; it's another who becomes an advisor and so on," he told RBK-Ukraine.
However, dealing with Kamala Harris is not as straightforward as it may seem. She is more predictable, more institutional (ready to work within established contacts), but the absence of a clear foreign policy strategy could be problematic, says Alexander Kraev, an expert at the Council on Foreign Policy "Ukrainian Prism."
"All of this may lead to some passivity and an even more cautious foreign policy. In the case of Ukraine, this is just as bad as Trump's chaotic approach. Clearly, under her, the US will continue its support. But will we see a truly decisive stance, new solutions, and qualitatively different support? There are questions," he believes.
The Position of Trump and What Will Happen If He Becomes President
Donald Trump questions the necessity of aid to Ukraine, arguing that Europe should bear the brunt of the burden. He has repeatedly dodged questions about whether he wants Ukraine to win. However, he has stated that if elected, he would quickly end the war—before his inauguration in January 2025.
In April, Trump mentioned he was open to providing Ukraine with credit assistance, similar to the lend-lease program the US initiated during World War II for its allies. He has said little about how he plans to bring the war to an end.
He may attempt to push Putin toward negotiations, and if he refuses, increase support for Ukraine. On the other hand, he is also prepared to pressure Zelensky. "I would tell Zelensky that he needs to make a deal. I would tell Putin that if he doesn't make a deal, we will give (Ukraine - ed.) a lot, more than they have ever received. I can make a deal in one day," Trump emphasized back in the summer of 2023.
At a September rally in North Carolina, he criticized Zelensky, claiming he allegedly turned down a deal that would have prevented Ukraine's destruction. "There was no agreement that would not be better than the current situation. Ukraine is destroyed and not recoverable," said the Republican candidate.
He describes the Ukrainian leader as "the best negotiator on Earth," since he supposedly leaves the US with tens of billions of dollars each time. He also promises to pull America out of the war and quickly end it with phone calls.
One way he sees to achieve this is by reducing energy prices. He believes that if oil prices drop to $40 a barrel, it will sharply decrease the flow of oil dollars and undermine Putin's ability to wage war.
Trump has repeatedly noted that he has a good relationship with Putin. At a meeting with Zelensky, he said something similar about him. He then made a statement about the need for a "fair deal for all" and added that he learned a lot from the negotiations with Zelensky, who presented a victory plan.
Photo: Donald Trump discussed a "fair deal for all" during his meeting with Zelensky (president.gov.ua)
According to Trump's advisors, American media report that his "fair deal" may involve freezing the war by creating autonomous regions on both sides of a demilitarized zone. Additionally, Ukraine will be pressured to abandon NATO membership, rethink previous Minsk agreements, and wait until Putin is ready.
Whether his policy will be like this is hard to say. Firstly, he is capable of unpredictable actions. Secondly, if he becomes president, he will have powers that could facilitate actions to strengthen Ukraine, says Faraonov.
"But we still have not heard from him the main question. Is he ready to pressure Putin? And if he is, to what extent and at what cost?"
Trump's intentions can be judged by his basic narratives, which are so contradictory that they point to one conclusion. His policy will be shaped solely by his own visions and will literally depend on his mood on any given day, says Kraev.
"The fact that he will push us toward negotiations is already a confirmed fact. And negotiations will be in the format of 'let's agree not to shoot, stop everything as it is, and conditionally start a new Minsk process.' This does not mean that he will stop aid during negotiations. On the contrary, he has said he could provide more weapons. The situation in this context is not defined. But he is unpredictable, and we may encounter significant problems with him," the expert believes.
Who Poses Fewer Risks for Ukraine and When to Expect Changes in US Policy
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris offer Ukraine two completely different future scenarios, writes The New York Times. And almost certainly, they will shape US policy differently depending on who wins the election.
Trump seems to be interested in a "deal," possibly at the expense of Ukraine's interests. Harris appears more predictable; however, the continuation of the current US administration's policy with a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow likely means that responses to new challenges may be delayed.
It is inappropriate to discuss who is more acceptable for Ukraine, as the US president is elected by the American people. It is more relevant to analyze who poses more risks.
"Harris is less risky. Yes, there may be fewer real decisive actions with her, but we know how to work with her and what to expect. With Trump, it's 'all or nothing.' Either he is for us