Without border openings and demobilization: what will happen if the war ends in 2025?

End of the War in Ukraine: How Demobilization, Border Opening, and De-mining Will Occur

According to Alexander Musienko, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, everything hinges on how the war in Ukraine concludes.

He noted that Ukraine will also need to strengthen its defense capabilities and security, which means developing the defense industry and supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Alongside the issues of militarization and maintaining the combat component of the Defense Forces, the question of gradual demobilization must be addressed. Following that, the political aspect will come into play — conducting elections and similar activities.

Former SBU employee and military analyst Ivan Stupak believes that immediately after the war ends in Ukraine, there will be political "chaos."

In addition, he is convinced that some individuals who were not allowed to leave Ukraine will travel abroad after the war concludes, whereas others will return home. However, the borders will not open immediately; a certain period will be required for that.

"When the threat of mobilization from the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRC) decreases almost to zero, I think that those who wish to return will start coming back immediately. I know people who want to return but are afraid of the TRC. I know foreigners who do not want to go to Britain, for example, but wish to return to Ukraine and live in Kyiv again," the expert explained.

Musienko also believes that the opening of borders will be a gradual process, as doing everything at once is risky. In his view, the state of martial law will also be lifted gradually — with restrictions being removed one by one.

However, according to Stupak, demobilization will occur in waves. There may also be an unpleasant issue of corruption, where individuals may need to pay those who want to be the first to leave the army. Demobilization will be partial; for instance, initially 5%, then another 5%, and thus the process could extend over two years.

"It's like an organism that has been pumped up, a balloon that has expanded; you can't just deflate it immediately, or there will be problems. Especially since Russia is still a factor, this needs to be done cautiously," he said.

Stupak stated that after the war in Ukraine, de-mining will take decades. It’s a complex issue. He cited the example of the Kyiv region, where Russians were present for only a month, yet de-mining continues to this day.

Musienko agrees that de-mining territories will take decades — from 10 to 50 years, depending on the technologies utilized.

"If ultra-modern technologies are used and there is significant assistance, it could be faster than 10 years; if not, it will take a long time," the expert clarified.

When Will Ukraine Return to Normal Life?

Adaptation after major wars takes years. Alexander Musienko noted that conditions will change, and the risk of war and confrontation may always arise. However, the process of returning to normal life after the war in Ukraine will take from several months to years.

In Stupak's opinion, the cancellation of the curfew is already a sign of returning to normal life. However, people will carry mental trauma.

"I was in Croatia about 10 years ago, and people say they have not recovered from the shelling that occurred during the Yugoslav wars; the sun shines, the sea is warm, but people's psyches are damaged," he shared.

He believes that for many years, Ukrainians will suffer from trauma due to explosions, while military personnel will need separate attention. The U.S. invests billions of dollars annually to help military personnel recover, yet there are still problems there. Ukraine also needs to invest in this, as there will be traumas and grievances, with some being in the rear while others were on the front lines. Stupak emphasized that one must never say to a soldier, "I didn’t send you there," as it would be a significant insult to all servicemen.

Recall that on December 24, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that the end of the war in Ukraine will be in 2025. He noted that there are two possible scenarios — negotiations or complete destruction.

On December 16, media outlets reported on four possible scenarios for the future security of Kyiv after the war concludes. In particular, this includes the potential deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine.