Fico's maneuvers: what the Slovak Prime Minister discussed in his negotiations with Putin.

The Slovak Prime Minister visited Moscow over the past weekend for gas negotiations amid statements from Ukraine regarding the cessation of Russian gas transit through its territory starting January 1, 2025. Notably, Robert Fico's trip to Russia marks his first visit to the country after returning to power in 2023. Consequently, Fico has become the third European leader, following Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, to visit Russia since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin and Fico discussed not only gas but also the Russian-Ukrainian war

As is well known, Slovakia has repeatedly sought to extend the agreement between Ukraine and Russia concerning the transit of Russian gas, which is set to expire in 2024. Following last week's conversation with the Slovak Prime Minister, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that Kyiv rules out extending the transit agreement with "Gazprom," but he added that Ukraine is open to transporting gas through its gas transmission system if it is not from Russia. Meanwhile, Politico recently reported that President Zelensky allegedly proposed to Fico to continue the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia in exchange for allowing Ukraine to join NATO. "During a recent closed meeting in Brussels, Fico was among those who urged the Ukrainian leader not to stop the transit of gas from Russia. Zelensky criticized him, stating: 'It’s a bit shameful to talk about money when we are losing people,'” Politico notes. The information was not commented on from Bankova. However, Fico asserted that Zelensky's proposals made to him behind closed doors were "absurd."

Regarding his current meeting with Putin, the Slovak Prime Minister emphasized that EU leaders were informed in advance about his trip to Moscow and its purpose. "My meeting was a response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's statement that he opposes any gas transit through Ukraine to our territory. The Ukrainian president is also advocating for sanctions against Russia's nuclear program. This position causes financial damage to Slovakia and jeopardizes electricity production at Slovakia's nuclear power plants, which is unacceptable," Fico noted.

He also added that Putin confirmed Russia's readiness to continue supplying gas to the West and Slovakia, "which will be practically impossible after January 1, 2025, given the position of the Ukrainian president." Additionally, the Slovak Prime Minister remarked that during their lengthy conversation, they "exchanged views on the military situation in Ukraine and the possibility of an early peaceful resolution to the war.

In turn, Putin's spokesperson Peskov, cited by Russian media, noted that the conversation took place in a "one-on-one" format, adding: "You probably heard the statements from the Ukrainian side and know the position of European countries that continue to buy Russian gas and consider it necessary for the normal functioning of their economies. This is a very complex situation that requires increased attention." The Kremlin representative also emphasized that "the President of Russia conveyed his view of the current situation on the battlefields in Ukraine" to his counterpart.

Did Fico really negotiate a gas credit with Putin?

An expert suggested that this was primarily related to the visit of the Slovak Prime Minister to Russia, summarizing: "It is likely that during the conversation with Putin, Fico discussed whether Russia could supply gas on credit with full payment to be made only after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Negotiations on such sensitive matters as weapons, gas, or nuclear energy are always secret, so we won’t know any details during the process. However, if the transit does occur, it will be impossible to hide information about the contract. It is quite possible that the Slovak side will initially invest the 'gas money' in some European trust that will guarantee payment to the Russians after the war concludes."

Kiev's policy towards Slovakia should be multilayered

Explaining the true price of cooperation with the Russian Federation, the political scientist emphasizes that Kyiv should also inform its partners about the reasons behind Slovakia and Hungary's "special" stance towards Moscow: "Considering the entry into a period of forming a multipolar world in geopolitical calculations, Fico and Orban are trying to act according to the Figaro scheme, simultaneously serving several masters. On one hand, for instance, the Hungarian Prime Minister is trying to maintain relations with Trump, while on the other hand, with the PRC and Russia. Thus, both Slovak and Hungarian officials are attempting to sit on three or four chairs at once. However, such a policy plays into Putin's hands, which contradicts the EU's stance."

Given this, Igor Petrenko emphasizes the need for a systematic appeal from Kyiv to the EU to conduct an internal discussion with "the adoption of relevant targeted decisions." At the same time, the political scientist adds that Ukraine should still maintain a "direct and immediate track" with Bratislava and Budapest and, bypassing sharp political angles, transition relations to a pragmatic level as much as possible.

According to the expert, key elements of this pragmatic approach, in addition to a range of economic issues, could include minority rights, culture, and education. At the same time, Igor Petrenko stresses that Kyiv should pursue this line by appealing primarily to Slovak and Hungarian societies to demonstrate to them that Fico and Orban are leading their countries "definitely in the wrong direction." The corresponding "multilayered policy," the expert concludes, should be extremely cautious, and its implementation should involve not only diplomats of various levels but also relevant experts, cultural figures, and "celebrities."

Also read analytical opinion by Volodymyr Omelyaneko: "The gas scheme of Orban and Fico: how Russia profits from war through its European proxies" — how "Gazprom" earns 6.5 billion euros a year from gas transit through Ukraine.