The drop in air temperature forecasted by meteorologists from November 3-4 will lead to an increase in energy consumption levels. This was stated by energy sector analyst and director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, Vladimir Omelchenko, in the article "Blackouts are returning. What about the electricity deficit and who will be disconnected first". Will there be a need for disconnections (particularly for residential consumers), and who has complete information about the electricity deficit in Ukraine? Read on to find out.
"In my opinion, there is no deficit expected at the moment... The information in the energy system is primarily held by the Ministry of Energy and "Ukrenergo," — noted Vladimir Omelchenko.
The decrease in air temperature will indeed lead to an increase in energy consumption levels. However, whether disconnections will be necessary can only be predicted by NEC "Ukrenergo."
At the same time, he reminded that the decrease in air temperature will indeed result in higher energy consumption. Yet, whether disconnections will be needed can only be forecasted by NEC "Ukrenergo," which has not yet provided forecasts regarding the implementation of restriction measures.
"Ukrenergo," for its part, stated that together with the Ministry of Energy, regional military administrations, and energy companies, it is doing everything possible to prevent the implementation of consumption restrictions.
The country can get through the winter period of 2024-2025 without disconnections or with minimal electricity restrictions during peak consumption hours if the temperature remains at 0 degrees or higher. Additionally, minor schedules may be introduced if the outside temperature drops to -10...-15 degrees Celsius for three consecutive days.
According to "Ukrenergo's statement, these conditions will correspond to one queue of disconnection schedules. The company's forecast indicates that the most challenging situation, with minimal power outages, is expected over a three-month period — from December to February. The colder it gets, the higher the likelihood and duration of disconnections.
We remind you that MP and chairman of the VR subcommittee on energy conservation, Sergey Nagornyak, stated that the state of the energy system will depend on whether Ukraine can restore its energy infrastructure by winter or build new one, as well as on Russian shelling of energy facilities.