Are we facing a collapse of the hryvnia in 2025? What can we expect for the currency exchange rate?

Security risks continue to be a key factor influencing the exchange rate. Experts believe the National Bank will curb devaluation.

Anton Kurinnoi, a dealer in the global markets department at OTP BANK, noted: In 2025, we anticipate both seasonal factors affecting the exchange rate and excess demand for military procurements, energy, and everything necessary for the country's survival during wartime, which will put pressure on the national currency.

"The situation with the exchange rate remains unchanged as long as the war continues in the country, so we expect a controlled devaluation of up to 10% per year. Therefore, the exchange rate set in the budget may be justified and reach the levels mentioned by the Ministry of Finance. The behavior of the national currency will depend on the flexible management of the exchange rate by the regulator and, of course, on the support of international partners and the increase/decrease of foreign exchange reserves. However, we believe that the regulator will contain any panic sentiments in the markets and manage the situation," says Anton Kurinnoi.

Meanwhile, according to ICU's baseline scenario, the pace of the hryvnia's devaluation next year will not exceed 10%.

According to Anna Zolotko, director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank, security risks remain a key factor influencing the exchange rate. "The National Bank will limit the devaluation of the hryvnia. Against the backdrop of accelerated inflation, this is an important factor for restoring price stability. Therefore, in my opinion, throughout January, the hryvnia will remain relatively stable," the expert noted.

Recall that during the week of December 23-27, The National Bank sold 1.625 billion dollars. The regulator increased currency sales by 14.7%. In total, since the beginning of 2024, the volume of currency sold by the NBU has reached 34.57 billion dollars.