Negotiations with Putin: What agreements will Zelensky sign and why is Trump's involvement necessary?

On Tuesday, February 4, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave an interview to British journalist Piers Morgan, during which he stated his readiness to sit down for negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin if necessary to end the war. He emphasized that such a step is only possible if it is the only way to bring peace to the Ukrainian people.

It is worth noting that Zelensky's stance on negotiations with Putin has undergone certain changes. Throughout his presidency, including the onset of the full-scale war, Zelensky has repeatedly expressed his willingness to engage in direct talks with Putin and called for dialogue. However, in the autumn of 2022, Putin crossed the last "red line," after which negotiations became impossible — he signed agreements to include the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine into Russia. In response, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine remains open to negotiations with Russia, but only on fair terms and with a different president — it is impossible to reach an agreement with Putin. This decision was formalized by a corresponding decree.

Negotiations with Putin: decrees change quickly

This means that the decree issued in 2022 declaring the impossibility of negotiations between Ukraine and Putin can be revoked; however, what format these agreements will take remains uncertain.

Negotiations may result in memoranda, communiqués, treaties, or joint statements. It is currently difficult to determine which specific document will be adopted as a result. Such documents are signed by heads of state or their authorized representatives. In some cases, such a document requires ratification by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, while in others, depending on its status, this may not be necessary.

"However, I believe that during negotiations, Russia may demand that Ukraine ratify certain agreements through parliament. We need to be prepared for this," continues Posternak.

Any war or military conflict always ends with negotiations. History does not record instances where conflicts ended without negotiations in some form. This could involve signing a capitulation act or another format of agreements, but negotiations have always taken place.

Global negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: how this will unfold

According to Taran, the negotiating table should not be limited to just Russia and Ukraine. Experience shows that "agreements with Russia are not worth the paper they are written on."

"Therefore, there should be more participants at the table who will sign the agreement. This definitely includes the USA, the UK, representatives of the European Union, and likely China as well. China, by the way, recently announced a conference where it wants to discuss the formula for ending the war and peace negotiations. This is advantageous for us because Russia is significantly dependent on China — both technologically and strategically. Thus, China could be an important guarantor for further negotiations," the political scientist believes.

According to the expert, this format is crucial, as Ukraine is interested not in a temporary truce lasting a couple of months, but in a truly long-term solution. This is only possible when there are many participants willing to discuss it.

"Such formats have existed in history. The First World War ended with a format where many countries participated in peace agreements. This can also be compared to the Congress of Vienna after the Napoleonic Wars or the peace agreements after the Second World War. This is an absolutely normal approach.

The larger the platform, the better. It’s like physics: the larger the area, the more reliable the support. Therefore, the more participants in this process, the higher the likelihood of the reliability of this structure. We, perhaps more than anyone, are interested in this being a long-term history, because Ukraine needs peace," Taran continues.

Oleg Posternak suggests another scenario: a meeting occurs at the level of Putin and Trump, or a peace conference involving Putin, Trump, and Zelensky. Then they agree on a ceasefire. This ceasefire is ensured by the decision of the commanders-in-chief. For example, Syrsky and Gerasimov confirm the ceasefire.

After that, if Russia demands that the US facilitate elections in Ukraine, Russia guarantees the cessation of missile attacks and the halt of hostilities. In Ukraine, martial law is suspended, and the country transitions to the electoral process. Ukrainians elect a new parliament and president. Only after that is a peace treaty or another document signed, confirming the absence of a state of war between the countries.

Who needs negotiations between Zelensky and Putin

Volodymyr Zelensky did not emphasize in his interview with Piers Morgan that he is ready for negotiations with Putin "if it is necessary to end the war" without reason; this is possible only if there are no other options left, believes political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

According to the political scientist, considering that both Zelensky and Putin view each other as enemies, as the Ukrainian leader himself has stated, this will hinder the ability to "make a proper agreement."

"From a functional perspective, in terms of diplomatic logic, the purpose of a high-level meeting exists only if both sides first agree on a specific peace agreement under the moderation of the USA. They must agree on the conditions to end the war, for example, on a ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and other issues. Reaching agreements on other matters will be either very difficult or impossible. For instance, the status of the occupied territories. But let’s assume that in an ideal scenario they reached an agreement. Then it would be possible to sign an agreement under the chairmanship of Trump, and afterward, he could contend for the Nobel Peace Prize. That is what Trump needs, not Putin and Zelensky," Fesenko continues.

However, even in an ideal scenario, it makes sense for both presidents to sign only an official peace treaty. According to the political scientist, signing a ceasefire agreement does not require the signatures of the presidents. Historical and international experience shows that such agreements can be signed by military officials, as happened after the Korean War or after the First and Second World Wars. These are usually signed by military representatives. Then, presidents sign other agreements, such as the Treaty of Versailles.

Why signing agreements is not beneficial for either Zelensky or Putin

If the peace agreement is a compromise, as Trump has repeatedly stated, with concessions from both sides, it will be criticized in both countries, especially in Ukraine.

"We will definitely criticize any agreement with Russia, even if there are minimal concessions; there will still be criticism, just as there was with the Minsk agreements. And there will be critics in Russia too. There will be plenty of people who will start screaming: 'Why did Ukraine remain, and Zelensky signed something if Putin does not recognize it?' and similar nonsense. Therefore, it is better if other people sign. Just like it was with the Minsk agreements, which were signed by a former president, not the current one. This was done deliberately to avoid taking political responsibility for an agreement that caused mixed perceptions in Ukraine. The situation is similar now. Therefore, in reality, it is not beneficial for either Putin or Zelensky to meet and sign anything," says Fesenko.

However, according to the political scientist, it is better for Ukraine to sign only ceasefire agreements to avoid taking on additional political obligations. But again, this can be done by military officials. If it comes to a peace agreement, it will only be after a ceasefire.

"A meeting between Putin and Zelensky is only possible under the auspices of Trump. And even such a meeting does not guarantee success. Only if they agree on a compromise option will there be a point in such a meeting. But just meeting to look at each other and say a few words for the press will not satisfy even Trump. He is a showman in the presidential role. Trump wants a show where he is the star, and Zelensky and Putin are the actors playing roles around him. He is the main peacemaker. That is the purpose of this meeting, and I see no other reason," concludes Fesenko.