300 boats are ready for an attack: will Russia launch an offensive on Kherson?

The possibility of a Russian offensive in southern Ukraine has been discussed multiple times since the start of the large-scale war. According to the chairman of the Kherson Regional State Administration, Alexander Prokudin, Russian military forces are preparing to launch an offensive on Kherson. Specifically, the enemy has gathered around 300 watercraft for crossing the Dnieper. Recently, Russian occupiers have been actively striking Kherson and other towns in the region using drones. Prokudin noted that the enemy has deployed its best drone units in the Kherson direction. Since mid-July, the enemy has conducted over 9,500 drone attacks, resulting in at least 37 casualties and hundreds of injuries in the region.

Kherson Offensive: Is the Enemy Likely to Attack Now?

Under the current circumstances, crossing the Dnieper is essentially suicidal, believes military expert and retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleg Zhdanov.

Russia has prepared 300 boats, which can accommodate just over two thousand troops. Zhdanov pointed out that crossing water barriers usually begins with securing a foothold on the opposite bank. For this, two thousand personnel—four battalions—are sufficient, while pontoon crossings can be constructed later for troop movements.

"Moreover, the crossing of a water barrier can take place simultaneously at several points to prevent the enemy from mounting organized resistance at any one location and destroying the landing troops on the opposite shore. This is a feature of the operation; it is possible to make an incursion or cross the barrier with just one battalion to secure a foothold," he explained.

"To launch an offensive on Kherson, one must cross what remains of the Dnieper River. The Russians have also observed how difficult it was for the Ukrainians to hold onto Alyoshki. I cannot say whether the Russians have the resources to carry out this crossing," he stated.

According to him, there are many swamps in that area, making it hard to move equipment. Furthermore, bridges and pontoon crossings are required for the equipment, which could become easy targets for Ukrainian FPV drones.

He noted that while this front can be shelled, Stupak doubts that a full-scale offensive is feasible. There may be an attempt to divert attention, or perhaps a commander wants to showcase "something significant" in this direction to earn some recognition from the Kremlin.

"There are no bridges there. They need equipment, artillery, BMPs, tanks—everything required for an offensive. Even motorcycles, supplies, and ammunition. Our military has faced numerous losses transporting supplies on boats. The boats go in, the Russians attack, and the boat returns with our wounded under fire," the expert recounted.

As of now, he sees no potential for an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces. They can only attempt some kind of suicidal maneuver.

"They do this in hopes of earning some medal or hero star, but for a full-scale operation with significant success—I doubt it," Ivan Stupak concluded.

Russia Distracts Attention with Potential Offensive on Kherson

The possibility of new offensives by the Russian Armed Forces has been discussed before. Back in late October, a representative of the Southern Defense Forces, Vladislav Voloshin, stated that the Russian army had amassed a significant grouping in southern Ukraine. Nearly 200,000 soldiers are deployed to bolster efforts and maintain defense. In several areas, the invaders are forming small groups of up to 10 for assaults. According to Voloshin, the Russians have begun to attack more aggressively towards the Zaporizhzhia region after capturing Ugledar.

Subsequently, there was information that the enemy might attempt to initiate a new offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region. And now, a potential offensive on Kherson and the surrounding area is being discussed. However, Russia might use the threat of an offensive on Kherson as a way to divert Ukraine's attention and resources from other strategic fronts. Experts believe this could be part of a broader plan to destabilize the front and create conditions for offensive actions in Donbas or Zaporizhzhia.

Despite the active actions of Russians in the Kherson region, a large-scale offensive in this area remains unlikely.

Recall that in early December, media reported that Russians were transporting equipment for building pontoon crossings to areas located on the left bank of the Dnieper. Additionally, the enemy is preparing its forces.

In November, the head of the Kherson Regional State Administration, Alexander Prokudin, stated that Russia had fired over 200,000 shells of various types at the right bank of the region. In the autumn, they threatened civilians and conducted "safaris," hunting peaceful residents.