Monday13 January 2025
gipoteza.net

"Russia has lost a portion of its revenue, causing panic in the market," says financial expert Shevchishin.

Europe is reducing its reliance on the Russian gas monopoly, which, combined with other issues, is causing panic in the Russian market and leading to a severe economic situation across all sectors.
"Россия утратила часть доходов, на рынке царит паника," — заявил финансовый эксперт Шевчишин.

Following the decision by the Austrian energy company OMV AG to stop payments for supplies from PJSC "Gazprom," a wave of lawsuits against the company has emerged. European energy firms are seeking compensation for Russia's breach of contractual obligations. Bloomberg reports on this matter. In the article "Sharp Decline of the Russian Ruble: What Happened and What It Means for Ukraine", financial analyst Andrey Shevchishin addressed this issue against the backdrop of the ruble's depreciation against the dollar.

In response, Gazprom halted supplies to Austrian OMV AG, highlighting significant consequences.

What is Known About the Gazprom and OMV Case

OMV stopped paying for gas received from Russia via Ukraine, prompting Gazprom to almost immediately cease deliveries. Given this example, other companies that have decided not to pay are looking for alternative supply sources that would allow them to bypass Gazprom.

For the Russian company, losing a client means losing yet another foothold in Europe.

"For the Russian company, cutting off a client means losing yet another foothold in Europe. Gas is one of the few valuable assets that Gazprom still has in Europe. The company’s international assets have diminished following the nationalization of Gazprom Germania at the peak of the energy crisis. Arbitration decisions are made on a 'first come, first served' basis, and in Europe, unlike the U.S., they do not have an expiration date," Bloomberg notes.

Для российской компании отрезать клиента означает потерять очередную точку опоры в Европе

Therefore, compensation from Gazprom is currently under consideration.

"Several cases are pending, and more compensations are expected in the coming months... If European importers are awarded more compensations, which is likely, and while some compensations may be fulfilled, it will put significant pressure on Gazprom's financial position," said energy lawyer and visiting researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Agnieszka Ason.

It is also important to remember the U.S. sanctions against "Gazprombank," which European firms use to pay for gas, and the uncertainty regarding flows through Ukraine as the transit agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024.

Additionally, it is crucial to consider the U.S. sanctions against "Gazprombank," which European firms utilize for gas payments, and the uncertainty surrounding the flow through Ukraine when the transit agreement concludes at the end of the year.

Recall that OMV, the largest oil company in Central Europe, announced its intention to deduct €230 million from its next gas payment, which was awarded to it by arbitration from "Gazprom Export" as compensation for losses due to irregular gas supplies from "Gazprom Export" to Germany before September 2022. This amount is comparable to Gazprom's monthly payment for gas.

Gas supplies to Austria via Ukraine were completely halted on November 16 by Gazprom's decision. In response, OMV seized Russian gas as coverage for the arbitration ruling.

As noted by Ukrainian financial analyst Andrey Shevchishin, "Russia has lost a chunk of revenue, which, combined with other issues, has caused panic in the Russian market and a severe economic situation across all sectors."

В РФ — дисбаланс экономики, вызванный войной в Украине

Decline of the Russian Ruble: Will This Lead to a Collapse of the Russian Economy?

Indeed, there are numerous problems in the Russian Federation at present. Foremost among these is the imbalance caused by military actions in Ukraine, which has been exacerbated by high inflation.

In his opinion, U.S. sanctions against "Gazprombank," which is actively involved in financing the war by conducting operations for the purchase of military equipment, paying the military, and facilitating payments for Russian energy resources, are forcing Russians to seek ways to circumvent restrictions.

Additionally, Shevchishin reminds us that a decision by OPEC to cease curbing oil production volumes is forthcoming.

"Under sanctions, Russia is unlikely to maintain its influence and market share. Thus, the weakening of the ruble also reflects issues with energy resources," he added.