Elections first, then talks: what does Trump truly offer Ukraine, and should we anticipate a Minsk-3?

The Special Representative of U.S. President Donald Trump for Ukraine and Russia, General Keith Kellogg, stated in an interview with Reuters that the Trump administration hopes for presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine by the end of the year, particularly in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. He emphasized that "most democratic countries hold elections during wartime" and considers this vital for democracy.

However, Ukrainian law prohibits elections during martial law. President Volodymyr Zelensky previously stated that elections can only take place after the cessation of hostilities and with strong security guarantees that would deter Russia from resuming aggression.

Ukrainian Elections as a Signal to the Kremlin from Trump

According to political scientist Oleg Posternak, during unofficial contacts between Trump and Putin, the Kremlin may be trying to promote the idea that the Ukrainian government is allegedly illegitimate. To ensure complete confidence in any agreements that may be signed as a result of a peaceful settlement, Russia likely wants to see, in particular, the electoral process. Therefore, Kellogg sends a signal to the Kremlin that they might consider this as an appealing tool for achieving a peace agreement. This is a sort of conditional flirting with Russia.

The political scientist stated that there is no issue with holding elections in Ukraine, but this is only possible if there is a ceasefire, the lifting of martial law, and guarantees that Russia will not conduct missile or drone attacks during the electoral process or resume hostilities. Thus, the Ukrainian government must clearly communicate this to the Americans.

Political scientist Igor Reiterovich also believes that Kellogg's words can be interpreted as certain signals to the Kremlin. However, the discussion was somewhat about a different scenario.

In the political scientist's opinion, the statement regarding elections is part of the pressure mechanisms mentioned by figures such as Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg. This is a signal that both sides will need to make certain concessions and meet preliminary conditions for negotiations to commence. According to American understanding, one of such conditions for Ukraine is, in particular, the holding of elections. But Reiterovich emphasizes that Kyiv has never refused to hold elections; it has only noted that they are possible under certain conditions.

Kellogg's thesis that all democratic countries conducted elections even during wartime is not accurate. For instance, the United States during World War II did not experience active hostilities on continental territory. The war primarily took place in other parts of the world, making elections feasible. The example of the American Civil War, which is sometimes cited, is also not indicative for Ukraine, as the situation was entirely different, with varying conditions and opportunities for organizing elections. Additionally, Americans propose a mail-in voting system for Ukraine, which allows for voter participation even if they are far from their polling places.

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that such an approach should also be considered for Ukraine, especially given the number of voters currently abroad. However, it should not be forgotten that the situation in Ukraine is much more complex. Organizing elections during wartime is extremely difficult, especially considering the scale of hostilities, destruction of infrastructure, and threats to people's safety.

Elections During Wartime in Ukraine Favor the Kremlin

Putin's statements regarding the alleged illegitimacy of Zelensky and the Ukrainian government indeed appear to hint at the need for a change in power, particularly through the holding of elections, to further end the war. However, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, this could be part of a strategy aimed at destabilizing the internal political situation in Ukraine and weakening the country.

"It is important to understand that Russia is not so much concerned about who will be in power in Ukraine as it is about the opportunity to legitimize pro-Russian political forces under the guise of elections. They are trying to use this process as a tool to accuse Ukraine of rejecting a peaceful settlement and ending the war.

This creates a significant risk that Americans might unwittingly play into these tactical maneuvers from Russia. Therefore, it is critically important for Ukraine to clearly articulate its position and explain to partners that we are not opposed to elections, but they must occur after the end of the war, when a sustainable ceasefire is established. It is impossible to organize elections without adequate security and stability," the political scientist states.

The process of preparing for elections, as experts emphasize, requires significant time, particularly for voter registration, demobilization, returning people to the country, and organizing democratic procedures. According to estimates, a minimum of six months is needed to prepare for post-war elections. Therefore, Ukraine must clearly explain to international partners that elections are not merely a political process, but an important stage for restoring democratic institutions, and this is only possible after the cessation of hostilities.

"In a war like the current one, these will not be elections but a farce. And again, Russia could take advantage of this to discredit the election results and undermine trust in them. Elections must be democratic, and we must consider the position of the Ukrainian side, especially regarding the legalization of pro-Russian forces," continues Fesenko.

Kellogg's Words About Elections in Ukraine Remind of the Minsk Agreements?

Kellogg's remarks suggesting that elections in Ukraine should occur before negotiations and the cessation of the war might recall the Minsk agreements, which also discussed holding elections in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas.

However, political scientists have reacted skeptically to this notion.

According to Igor Reiterovich, it is inappropriate to compare the Minsk agreements with the statements, or even the conditional plan, put forth by Kellogg.

"Because the Minsk agreements concerned elections in the territories of ORDLO, in the occupied areas, where Ukraine could not present its position. Initially, conditions were set for restoring legitimacy, re-establishing Ukrainian political parties and branches, as well as many other aspects. This then led to the discussion of the Steinmeier formula. Here the situation is entirely different; it does not resemble what Kellogg notes," Reiterovich states.

Volodymyr Fesenko also believes that drawing analogies with the Minsk agreements is inappropriate since they did not pertain to a ceasefire but to the reintegration of conflict regions into Ukraine.

"The current peace agreements will be quite different—specifically about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. This is a completely different situation from what was outlined in the Minsk agreements. Regarding elections, they were about holding elections in part of the territory related to the ceasefire procedure. Here certain analogies can be made, but back then it was about a specific procedure already outlined in the agreement. In this case, there are only ideas," Fesenko explains.

However, a trap from Russia is entirely possible; it may indeed start demanding elections in Ukraine and only then a ceasefire. But even if this idea is conveyed by a representative of Trump, it does not imply that such a scenario is likely. According to Oleg Posternak, most American politicians understand well that while the hot phase of the war continues, there is no point in discussing electoral procedures at all.

It is worth noting that EU leaders are convening a defense summit amid uncertainty regarding the intentions of the United States. The summit will be informal due to the lack of clear signals from President Donald Trump regarding how he plans to stop Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Recently, Donald Trump announced negotiations with Ukraine, Russia, and other states regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war.