Migrants from other countries will replace Ukrainians: what will the population look like in 25 years?

Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had a population of 42 million, which has now decreased to 35.8 million. However, according to the Institute of Demography and Social Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences, it is estimated that by 2051, the number of Ukrainians could drop to 25.2 million.

"The issue of reproductive health and preserving the gene pool of the Ukrainian nation is critically important and should become a priority of state policy," said the Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets.

The Demographic Situation in Ukraine: Factors Influencing Population Decline

Doctor of Economics, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Quality Problems of the NAS of Ukraine, Oleksandr Gladun stated that there are scenarios for calculating potential population sizes. In Ukraine, everything hinges on the end of the war and the demographic policies the government will implement, as well as their effectiveness. Thus, in 25 years, the country could have a population of 25 million, or 30, or even 35 million.

The population is also aging, a trend observed globally, particularly in Europe where some countries are older than Ukraine.

He noted that the Institute of Demography revises its forecasts annually, depending on the situation with migrants and events on the front line. Therefore, these forecasts should be viewed as a warning, indicating what will happen if nothing changes and current trends persist.

The situation is such that the longer the war continues, the fewer Ukrainians will return from abroad. However, if measures are not taken to boost birth rates, Ukraine as a nation may not survive.

Ukraine May Import Migrants from Other Countries

Gladun pointed out that many speeches currently emphasize the need to bring 4-5 million migrants to Ukraine to fill jobs.

"Then overall, what kind of country will we be discussing if the government does this? That is a very large number. We will have a completely different country, if we even have one," he stated.

Oleksandr Gladun highlighted that migration processes are occurring worldwide — populations are gradually moving and changing their countries of residence. However, the question lies in the pace — how slowly or quickly this happens.

"If it happens quickly, it can completely alter the social, demographic, religious, and mental fabric of the country and may lead to its destruction or, conversely, to prosperity. But prosperity is unlikely. We see many problems arising in Western European countries due to the influx of migrants. Right-wing parties are coming to power on anti-migrant rhetoric. No one has proven that migrants significantly boost the economy. They fill certain gaps in specific job markets, but the extent to which they contribute to economic development is debatable," the demographer explained.

Gladun believes it is better to focus on investing in one’s own country, supporting young families, promoting a healthy lifestyle, and fostering medical advancements. According to him, importing migrants is a greatly simplified approach to addressing demographic issues.

Voskoboynik is convinced that in 25 years, there will hardly be a significant migration from other countries, and thus Ukrainians will predominantly remain of the white race. However, this will be an older nation. Moreover, in his opinion, Ukraine will not be the wealthiest country in Europe.

"Even before the war, Ukraine's population was decreasing by about 300-350 thousand people each year. Regardless of what happens in our country, it is unlikely we can quickly increase the number of children. Therefore, the decline that demographers talk about is based on a very simple problem — we are physically dying out, and unfortunately, we will not be able to do without migrants from other countries even to maintain the population at the same level," he explained.

According to Voskoboynik, to ensure that 35 million people continue to live in Ukraine over the next decade, at least three million migrants need to be attracted. He emphasized that society, government, and businesses must understand that Ukraine will lack not only workers but also consumers of goods and services, as well as taxpayers.

"Labor migrants are not just people who will come here to work. They may settle and eventually integrate, becoming representatives of a purely political Ukrainian nation," he stated.

Ukraine cannot do without attracting labor migrants. For this to occur smoothly, Vasyl Voskoboynik believes that society must be ready to accept foreigners, and the country's migration strategy needs to be rewritten. There should also be a continuous informational campaign among Ukrainians to convey the main idea — in modern society, there are no borders; retaining the population or bringing all Ukrainians back from abroad, and increasing birth rates to combat the demographic catastrophe will not be possible.

"Therefore, the simplest yet simultaneously most complex path is to attract migrants from other countries," he added.

It is worth noting that on December 3, MP Olha Vasylevska-Smahliuk suggested that "Zelensky's thousand" is needed for population counting, excluding residents of temporarily occupied territories and those who have left for abroad.

On October 29, Doctor of Economics, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Quality Problems of the NAS of Ukraine, Oleksandr Gladun stated that talk of a census in Ukraine is currently out of the question, as it is impossible to organize and impractical to conduct. According to him, the number of people can be estimated a year or two after the war concludes.