According to official data from the Ministry of Justice, there were 495.09 thousand deaths registered over the year, while the number of newborns was only 176.78 thousand. This means that there are nearly three deaths for every newborn.
Concerning Decline in Birth Rates
Compared to 2023, the number of newborns has decreased by 10.7%. This confirms the trend of declining birth rates observed in Ukraine over recent years. The number of deaths has changed little, with a decrease of only 0.2%.
However, in the second half of 2024, the situation stabilized somewhat: a slight increase in birth rates of 1.6% was recorded, along with a decrease in mortality of 2.7%. Whether this will mark the beginning of positive changes remains uncertain.
Regional Disparities: Where is the Situation Most Critical?
The mortality rate significantly exceeds the birth rate in all regions of Ukraine; however, in some areas, the situation is particularly alarming. The worst figures are in the Kherson region, where there are 11 deaths for every birth. A similar picture is seen in the Donetsk region, with a ratio of 8.5. The average mortality rates are significantly higher in the Zaporizhia (4.7), Sumy (4.7), Kharkiv (4.5), and Chernihiv (4.4) regions.
Conversely, the most optimistic demographic situation is found in the Rivne (1.6), Transcarpathian (1.7), Volyn (1.7), Kyiv (1.8), Chernivtsi (1.9), and Lviv (2.0) regions. Here, birth rates at least partially compensate for the losses caused by high mortality.
Why is Ukraine's Population Still Declining?
The tense demographic situation in the country was evident even before the onset of full-scale war. Experts note that in 2021, the ratio of deaths to births was already between 2.5 and 2.7, and the hostilities have only exacerbated this issue. Contributing factors include migration, economic difficulties, declining living standards, and psychological pressure caused by the war.
Ukraine is facing a challenge that could determine its future for decades to come. Without effective government policies and social programs aimed at supporting birth rates, the situation may become even more critical.