The celestial object, designated as 2024 YR4, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). It is estimated to measure between 40 and 100 meters, comparable to the Tunguska meteorite that devastated a vast area in Siberia in 1908.
Preliminary calculations indicate that 2024 YR4 may collide with Earth on December 22, 2032, with an uncertainty of 1.5 days. The current probability of a direct impact stands at 1.2%.
If a collision occurs, the resulting explosion could cause significant local destruction within a radius of 30 kilometers. The projected risk zone spans a wide geographical range, extending from the Pacific Ocean through South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Central Africa, and reaching northern India.
Additionally, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) has assessed the potential danger of this asteroid using the Torino Scale, a system used to gauge the threat level of near-Earth objects.
Currently, 2024 YR4 has a rating of 3, making it the only asteroid with a non-zero classification, indicating a potential collision risk that necessitates ongoing monitoring.
Some estimates suggest a collision probability of up to 6%, although there remains a 94% chance that the asteroid will safely pass at a distance of approximately 60,000 kilometers from Earth. Astronomers plan to refine their trajectory forecasts with additional observations in 2028 and 2029.
“IAU has named the doomsday date: December 22, 2032, when a 70-meter asteroid could collide with Earth,” the report states.
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