The NBU anticipates an increase in utility rates: when will it happen?

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) anticipates that the current tariffs for gas, heating, and hot water will not be revised throughout 2025. Increases may occur starting in 2026.

This information is reported by RBK-Ukraine, referencing the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2025).

"A gradual increase in excise taxes and utility tariffs is expected; however, the timing and parameters for adjusting the latter remain uncertain, posing a risk to the inflation forecast," the report states.

The forecast is based on the assumption that certain utility service tariffs (gas, heating, and hot water supply) will remain unchanged throughout 2025.

However, the challenging situation in the energy sector and the state budget may necessitate tariff adjustments in subsequent years. "It is expected that from 2026, a gradual alignment of tariffs to economically justified levels may begin," the document notes.

According to the NBU, uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of energy tariff adjustments presents a distinct risk to the inflation forecast. A significant increase in energy prices to quickly address imbalances in the energy sector will intensify inflationary pressure and create a need for increased subsidies for the population.

"On the other hand, a prolonged delay in decisions to align utility tariffs to economically justified levels will lead to lower inflation rates but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state energy companies. This will create additional risks for the sector's investment potential, heighten instability risks in the energy market, and the price pressure will merely be postponed to the future," the NBU added.

Partial Moratorium

It should be noted that a moratorium on increasing tariffs for gas, hot water, and heating is currently in effect in Ukraine; however, this does not apply to electricity and cold water.

As a result, the average prices for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other types of fuel in Ukraine rose by 18.9% in December 2024 compared to December of the previous year. This increase was driven by rising electricity prices.