Over the past year, an additional half a million people have left Ukraine, and a large-scale return is unlikely, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

High security risks, ongoing shelling, and destruction, along with a persistent electricity shortage, negatively impact the quality of life for Ukrainians. This situation drives further external migration.

This is reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2025).

"Throughout 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued, totaling approximately 0.5 million people for the year, which aligns with the estimates of the NBU," the review states.

As noted by the NBU, this provides grounds not to alter assumptions regarding future migration trends. In 2025, a continued net outflow of external migrants is expected (around 0.2 million people), but starting in 2026, a net return of migrants to Ukraine is projected (about 0.2 million people), which will accelerate in 2027 (approximately 0.5 million people).

According to the NBU, there is a decrease in the proportion of those wishing to return, due to the further adaptation of Ukrainians abroad.

"Therefore, a mass and rapid return of migrants under the current status quo appears unlikely, resulting in a sustained labor shortage during the forecast period," the document states.

The NBU assesses the risks of a greater outflow of migrants abroad and a smaller return as high (25-50%).
bank.gov.ua

If these risks materialize, the labor market situation will worsen, and domestic consumer demand may decline.

"At the same time, changes in the policies of recipient countries regarding Ukrainian migrants and proactive measures by the Ukrainian government to facilitate the return of migrants could revitalize migration inflows. Additionally, this could be stimulated by a rapid decrease in security risks in Ukraine. In such a scenario, labor shortages would decrease, consumer demand would recover more quickly, while the risks of rising unemployment in the short term could also intensify," the report concludes.

It is worth noting that, according to data from the UN Refugee Agency, as of December 16, 2024, 6.814 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded worldwide. Thus, over the course of less than a year, the number of refugees increased by 370 thousand people.