The situation will largely depend on the weather and the availability of gas supplies, especially in the event of a transit failure. Such a forecast was expressed by Yuri Korolchuk, an expert from the Institute of Energy Strategies.
Korolchuk described the possibility of prolonged outages as an "optimistic scenario," particularly during the colder months. He noted that even in an average winter, the increased demand for electricity during winter months will likely put pressure on the energy system, resulting in more frequent outages.
Overloading transformers, substations, and other infrastructure during periods of high electricity demand could lead to an increase in accidents, further affecting stability.
While there is some hope for adequate gas supply, the situation remains uncertain. Korolchuk warned that if gas transit stops, Ukraine may face a significant deficit, especially between January and February.
In such a case, the government may implement gas supply schedules, particularly for centralized heating systems and private consumers, to conserve gas resources and avoid crisis situations.
The combination of electricity and gas restrictions could further burden an already overloaded infrastructure, leading to a greater risk of accidents and emergency repairs.
Despite these challenges, Korolchuk remains cautiously optimistic, believing that Ukraine can endure the winter with some difficulties. However, he acknowledged that in the worst-case scenario, particularly with colder-than-usual weather or insufficient gas supplies, power outages could be more severe, and gas supply schedules could become even more restrictive.
Korolchuk also mentioned that Naftogaz has prepared contingency plans to address these potential crises, including developing electricity and gas supply schedules to manage resources during critical periods.
“This is a pessimistic forecast that was developed last year,” the specialist noted.